614
FXUS61 KPHI 110624
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
224 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS THE SAME THOUGH WITH A MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE FOR BOTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
2. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.
3. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR AREA AT THIS HOUR AND
WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AS THE MORNING GOES ON. THE FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FOR
THE PM HOURS.
NO CHANGES TO BOTH THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
PLACE FROM I-80 ON SOUTH WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FROM PHILADELPHIA ON SOUTH. MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING, FOCUSING THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. SHEAR IS WEAK
THOUGH STILL SO A MARGINAL IS ABOUT RIGHT. SOME SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERTED SIGNATURE AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PRIMARY
THREAT FOR TODAY BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THE TIMING REMAINS FROM ABOUT 1 TO 8 PM FOR THE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF THE HYDRO THREAT, STILL SEEING PWATS TOWARDS THE
HIGHER CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES INDICATING A MUGGY AND MOIST
AIRMASS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT
THINKING RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS A FEW DAYS
AGO WHEN WE SAW SEVERAL INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING JUST QUICKLY ENOUGH AND THERE ISN'T MUCH
OF A SIGNAL FOR TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING STORMS. THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE, AND THINKING
FLOODING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO URBAN AREAS OR AREAS THAT HAVE
SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS ON THE CONTINUING RAINFALL
DEFICIT AND DROUGHT.
THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE SOME
RAINFALL TODAY, THOUGH THE INCOMING DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG
THREAT A BIT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND TODAY, THINGS TURN DRIER WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. SOME SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WANTED TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THINKING ANYTHING WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND NON-
IMPACTFUL. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A PLEASANT STRETCH ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HEAT RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY GETTING WELL
INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY LOWER TEMPERATURES
A SMIDGE AT SOME POINT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOR
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY.
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP FOR THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A
MINOR PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDES WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE BEGINNING WITH THE HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUING WITH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE GET TOWARDS THE NEW MOON WHICH COULD
KEEP ELEVATED TIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREAS
MOST AT RISK OF SEEING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY. THE SEVERITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR LEVELS BUT WILL MONITOR HOW THINGS
TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS. NO PLANS FOR ADVISORIES YET BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE FOR SOME COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING
NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE DELAWARE RIVER WITH THE UPCOMING ELEVATED TIDES. NO TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THROUGH 12Z)...PRIMARILY VFR BUT SOME PATCHY
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP (OR IN KMIV'S CASE ALREADY HAS
DEVELOPED). NOT EXPECTING FOG AND STRATUS TO RESULT IN AS LOW
CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY, BUT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE (40-50%) OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTH JERSEY
TERMINALS. GIVEN THAT NO NEW RAIN FELL OVER THE I-95 TERMINALS
TODAY, THINGS ARE A BIT MORE DRY AT THE SURFACE AND THE
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS ONLY AROUND 10-15% FOR FOG AT
KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN WHICH IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ANY FOG DISSIPATES NOT
LONG AFTER DAYBREAK AND BY 11Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM BUT A LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTION MAY BE
FAVORED AT TIMES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR TO START AND THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. HAVE ADDED TSRA AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE
HIGHER FROM KPHL ON SOUTH. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 23Z
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS WILL START NORTHERLY AROUND
5 TO 10 KT AND THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING, STILL AROUND 5 TO 10 KT THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
LATE, ESPECIALLY WHERE AREAS TODAY SEE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, SOME
DRIER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING IN, WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND A BRIEF
INCREASE IN WINDS AS WELL AS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. MULTIPLE WEAK SWELL GROUPS AROUND, BUT
WITH RELATIVELY CALM SURF (1 TO 3 FOOT BREAKERS). RIP CURRENT
RISK REMAINS LOW AT ALL SHORE POINTS.
FOR SUNDAY, LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS WITH WINDS AROUND 10
MPH. MULTIPLE WEAK SWELL GROUPS LINGER WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT BREAKERS
AGAIN. RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW AT ALL SHORE POINTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...HOEFLICH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page