101
FXUS61 KPHI 111854
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS THE SAME THOUGH WITH A MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE FOR BOTH.
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 2 AND THE OUTLOOK SECTIONS FOR AVIATION AND
MARINE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
2. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.
3. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES
AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE FOR THE SOUTH JERSEY COAST, DELAWARE
COAST, AND AREAS SURROUNDING DELAWARE BAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA AND
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF DELMARVA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PM HOURS.
NO CHANGES TO BOTH THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
PLACE FROM I-80 ON SOUTH WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FROM ABOUT I-78 SOUTHWARD. MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING, FOCUSING THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SHEAR IS WEAK THOUGH STILL
SO A MARGINAL IS ABOUT RIGHT. SOME SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED
SIGNATURE AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR
TODAY BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE TIMING FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM, BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF THE HYDRO THREAT, STILL SEEING PWATS TOWARDS THE
HIGHER CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILES INDICATING A MUGGY AND MOIST
AIRMASS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT
THINKING RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS A FEW DAYS
AGO WHEN WE SAW SEVERAL INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING JUST QUICKLY ENOUGH AND THERE ISN'T MUCH
OF A SIGNAL FOR TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING STORMS. THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE, AND THINKING
FLOODING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO URBAN AREAS OR AREAS THAT HAVE
SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS ON THE CONTINUING RAINFALL
DEFICIT AND DROUGHT.
THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE SOME
RAINFALL TODAY, THOUGH THE INCOMING DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG
THREAT A BIT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND SATURDAY, THINGS TURN DRIER WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. SOME SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WANTED TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT THINKING ANYTHING WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND NON- IMPACTFUL.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A PLEASANT STRETCH ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HEAT RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY GETTING WELL
INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY LOWER TEMPERATURES A SMIDGE
AT SOME POINT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOR
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY. A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE FOR THE
SOUTH JERSEY COAST, DELAWARE COAST, AND AREAS SURROUNDING
DELAWARE BAY.
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP FOR THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A
MINOR PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDES WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE BEGINNING WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUING WITH THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE GET TOWARDS THE NEW MOON WHICH COULD
KEEP ELEVATED TIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREAS
MOST AT RISK OF SEEING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY. THE SEVERITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR LEVELS BUT WILL MONITOR HOW THINGS
TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS.
FOR TONIGHT, TIDES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE SOUTH JERSEY
COAST, DELAWARE COAST, AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY. ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS, WITH SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN NJ COAST. THOSE AREAS MAY
NEED AN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, BUT TOO EARLY TO
KNOW FOR CERTAIN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE DELAWARE RIVER WITH THE UPCOMING ELEVATED TIDES. NO TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...PREVAILING VFR BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.
MAINTAINED TSRA AND TEMPO TSRA GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH
COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE HIGHER FROM KPHL ON SOUTH. STORMS
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 23Z AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE,
ESPECIALLY WHERE AREAS TODAY SEE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER
AIR SHOULD BE MOVING IN, WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
COULD RESULT IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WELL AS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FAIR WEATHER.
RIP CURRENTS...
REST OF TODAY, FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. MULTIPLE WEAK SWELL GROUPS AROUND, BUT
WITH RELATIVELY CALM SURF (1 TO 3 FOOT BREAKERS). RIP CURRENT
RISK REMAINS LOW AT ALL SHORE POINTS.
FOR SUNDAY, ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH. HOWEVER, BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW (1 TO 3
FEET) AND THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 6
SECONDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ021>025.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/HOEFLICH/OHARA
AVIATION...AKL/OHARA
MARINE...AKL/OHARA
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