497
FXUS61 KPHI 120520
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
120 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR ALL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
ONE MAY BE NEEDED BUT HEADLINES WON'T BE ISSUED UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING.
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR NEW TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1 DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.
2. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND SATURDAY, THINGS TURN DRIER WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. SOME SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WANTED TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT THINKING ANYTHING WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND NON- IMPACTFUL.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A PLEASANT STRETCH ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HEAT RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY GETTING WELL
INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY LOWER TEMPERATURES A SMIDGE
AT SOME POINT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOR
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND AREAS AROUND DELAWARE BAY. A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE FOR MOST
OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST, DELAWARE COAST, AND AREAS SURROUNDING
DELAWARE BAY.
A RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN A MINOR PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE COASTLINE.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE ALSO INCREASING WITH THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDES WITH MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE BEGINNING WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE HINTS AT TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUING WITH THE
EVENING/NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE NEW MOON WHICH COULD
KEEP ELEVATED TIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREAS
MOST AT RISK OF SEEING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTLINE AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY. THE SEVERITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR LEVELS BUT WILL MONITOR HOW THINGS
TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AFTER MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED, THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A NEW ONE MAY BE NEEDED BUT
WON'T BE ISSUED UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER WITH THE UPCOMING ELEVATED
TIDES. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES
ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THROUGH 12Z)...PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE I-95
AND LEHIGH VALLEY TERMINALS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS THAN A 10%
CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS. WATCHING SOME STRATUS ON SATELLITE
DEVELOP OVER NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE BUT IT SEEMS TO BE
STRUGGLING TO MAKE INROADS WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS MAY MAKE IT TO KILG, BUT DIDN'T HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO BRING ANY RESTRICTIONS IN.
STORY IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT FOR KMIV/KACY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THESE TWO SITES SAW A GOOD
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY.
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 3 TO 8 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS
AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY, STARTING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND ENDING THE DAY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT KACY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5
KT OR LESS THOUGH PERIODS OF CALM LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SUNDAY, ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND AROUND 15 MPH. HOWEVER, BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW
(1 TO 3 FEET) AND THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND
7 SECONDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL BEACHES.
FOR MONDAY, ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND AROUND 10-15 MPH. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET
REMAIN AND THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD SHOULD BE AROUND 7 SECONDS.
THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL ALONG WITH THE
NEW MOON ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...HOEFLICH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page