113
FXUS61 KPHI 120847
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
447 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANGES TODAY, MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS.
A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COAST, AS WELL AS COMMUNITIES ALONG DELAWARE BAY AS
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
UPGRADED THE RISK TO MODERATE FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL
BEACHES.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER NEXT FRIDAY. KEY MESSAGE 4 WILL DISCUSS THE LATE WEEK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE
FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND DELAWARE BAY. FURTHER COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
2. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH A
LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED
FOR THE POCONO PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON.
3. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY, LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MAY NEED HEAT
HEADLINES.
4. FRIDAY COULD BE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH
TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND DELAWARE BAY.
FURTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
A RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY RESULTING
IN A MINOR PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES ARE ALSO INCREASING WITH THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDES WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
LIKELY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE SEVERITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN WITHIN MINOR LEVELS BUT WILL MONITOR HOW THINGS TREND
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
FOR TONIGHT, A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST AS WELL AS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
DELAWARE BAY INCLUDING SALEM AND NEW CASTLE COUNTY FOR THIS
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN, AND GUIDANCE SHOWS TIDES PERHAPS A TOUCH HIGHER
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. ONLY SPOTTY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY, SO NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR
THOSE AREAS.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER WITH THE UPCOMING ELEVATED
TIDES. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES
ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT THROUGH
MONDAY, THOUGH A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED FOR THE POCONO PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON.
WE TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE POCONO PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED
AROUND A 15-30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED (OR EVEN A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL)
WITH LOW TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY,
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MAY
NEED HEAT HEADLINES.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING EXTENDS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SET UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ALLOWING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN, THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS
BAD AS HOW WE STARTED JULY. THE HEAT PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY, WHERE
HEAT HEADLINES LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE
AREA AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 90S WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY.
A DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 4...FRIDAY COULD BE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE.
WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT WE ARE MONITORING THE SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS
HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (15% CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 25 MILES FROM ANY POINT). STORMS LOOK TO BE
DRIVEN BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY, THE INGREDIENTS
ARE CERTAINLY THERE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
IN THEIR LONG TERM OUTLOOK, SPC DID MENTION SOME SMALL MCS
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY 7 TO 10 PERIOD AS SOME SHORTWAVES ARE
LIKELY TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AGAIN, STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THROUGH 12Z)...VFR FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY
TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE I-95 TERMINALS
AS A BKN/SCT STRATUS DECK APPEARS TO BE RIGHT NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THINKING THAT DISSIPATES BY 11Z-12Z BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (25-30% CHANCE).
STORY IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT FOR KMIV/KACY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THESE TWO SITES SAW A GOOD
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY.
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 3 TO 8 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS
AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY, STARTING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND ENDING THE DAY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT KACY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5
KT OR LESS THOUGH PERIODS OF CALM LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20
MPH (HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS). WAVE
GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS AS WELL WITH ONE SECONDARY
SWELL BEING AROUND 10 SECONDS. BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET
ARE EXPECTED. WITH MODEST ONSHORE FLOW AND A 10 SECOND SWELL
AMONG MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS, ALL BEACHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MONDAY, WINDS WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY LOWER AS WELL. WAVE GUIDANCE NOW ONLY HAS ONE
SWELL GROUP OF AROUND 6 SECONDS. A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL DOES
DEVELOP AND WE GET WITHIN A DAY OF THE NEW MOON, HOWEVER WITH A
SHORT PERIOD, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW BREAKING WAVES, A
LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR NOW.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NJZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...HOEFLICH
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