140
FXUS61 KPHI 121748
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
148 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 2.
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE
FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND DELAWARE BAY. FURTHER COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
2. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR
THE NORTH/WEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
3. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY, LIKELY
CONTINUING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
NEED HEAT HEADLINES.
4. LATE WEEK COULD BE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH TONIGHT'S
HIGH TIDE FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND DELAWARE BAY. FURTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
A RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY RESULTING
IN A MINOR PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES ARE ALSO INCREASING WITH THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDES WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
LIKELY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE SEVERITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN WITHIN MINOR LEVELS BUT WILL MONITOR HOW THINGS TREND
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
FOR TONIGHT, A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST AS WELL AS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
DELAWARE BAY INCLUDING SALEM AND NEW CASTLE COUNTY FOR THIS
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN, AND GUIDANCE SHOWS TIDES PERHAPS A TOUCH HIGHER
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. ONLY SPOTTY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY, SO NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR
THOSE AREAS.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER WITH THE UPCOMING ELEVATED
TIDES. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES
ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM FOR THE NORTH/WEST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A MINOR DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
NEAR BERKS COUNTY PA WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SIGNAL FOR THIS (LIKE THEY HAVE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW). WE'LL
CONTINUE WITH THIS SINCE SATELLITE PICS SHOW SOME BUILDING
CLOUDS AROUND THERE ATTM. CLEAR AND SEASONABLE COOL TONIGHT.
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. COULD BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK
WEATHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY,
LIKELY CONTINUING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY NEED HEAT HEADLINES.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING EXTENDS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SET UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ALLOWING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN, THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS
BAD AS HOW WE STARTED JULY. THE HEAT PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY, WHERE
HEAT HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 90S WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PHL AND A FEW OTHER SITES
TAG THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN, BUT ITS UNLIKELY TO REACH THE LEVELS
EXPERIENCED EARLY IN THE MONTH.
A DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 4...LATE WEEK COULD BE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE.
WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT WE ARE MONITORING THE SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO BREAK THE HEAT RIDGE, PUTTING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IN PLAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
(15% CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 25 MILES FROM ANY POINT).
STORMS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY,
THE INGREDIENTS ARE CERTAINLY THERE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION.
IN THEIR LONG TERM OUTLOOK, SPC DID MENTION SOME SMALL MCS
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY 7 TO 10 PERIOD AS SOME SHORTWAVES ARE
LIKELY TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AGAIN, STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 00Z. VFR EXPECTED. A VCSH ADDED FOR KRDG/KABE IN CASE
SHOWERS DEVELOP. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. HIGH
CONFID.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5 KT OR
LESS THOUGH PERIODS OF CALM LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH
CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-ENTER THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS AND WAVES MAY TOUCH 5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20
MPH (HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS). WAVE
GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS AS WELL WITH ONE SECONDARY
SWELL BEING AROUND 10 SECONDS. BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET
ARE EXPECTED. WITH MODEST ONSHORE FLOW AND A 10 SECOND SWELL
AMONG MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS, ALL BEACHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS.
FOR MONDAY, WINDS WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY LOWER AS WELL. WAVE GUIDANCE NOW ONLY HAS ONE
SWELL GROUP OF AROUND 6 SECONDS. A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL DOES
DEVELOP AND WE GET WITHIN A DAY OF THE NEW MOON, HOWEVER WITH A
SHORT PERIOD, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW BREAKING WAVES, A
LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR NOW.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
CLIMATE
A BRIEF 1-DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
LIKELY TO APPROACH RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY,
JULY 15:
ALLENTOWN/ABE 98 IN 1995
AC AIRPORT/ACY 100 IN 1995
AC MARINA/55N 99 IN 1995
GEORGETOWN/GED 96 IN 2024 AND 1993
MOUNT POCONO/MPO 92 IN 1954
PHILADELPHIA/PHL 103 IN 1995
READING/RDG 100 IN 1995
TRENTON/TTN 101 IN 1995
WILMINGTON/ILG 99 IN 1997 AND 1995
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NJZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/OHARA/RCM
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA/RCM
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA/RCM
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