804
FXUS61 KPHI 122343
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
743 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 2 AND AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH
TIDE FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND DELAWARE BAY. FURTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
2. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF A SHOWER FOR THE NORTH/WEST AREAS THIS
EVENING.
3. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY, LIKELY
CONTINUING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
NEED HEAT HEADLINES.
4. LATE WEEK COULD BE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND DELAWARE
BAY. FURTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
A RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW HAS CONTINUED TODAY RESULTING
IN A MINOR PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES ARE ALSO INCREASING WITH THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDES WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
LIKELY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE SEVERITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN WITHIN MINOR LEVELS BUT WILL MONITOR HOW THINGS TREND
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
FOR THIS EVENING, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTH JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST AS WELL AS THE ENTIRETY
OF DELAWARE BAY INCLUDING SALEM AND NEW CASTLE COUNTY FOR THIS
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
AGAIN, AND GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW TIDES NEAR OR PERHAPS
A TOUCH HIGHER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. ONLY SPOTTY MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY, SO NO ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER WITH THE UPCOMING ELEVATED
TIDES. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES
ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF A SHOWER FOR THE
NORTH/WEST AREAS THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A MINOR DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
NEAR BERKS COUNTY PA WHICH HAS BROUGHT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. THESE ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BUT ANOTHER
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 10 PM FOR
THIS AREA. OTHERWISE, CLEAR AND SEASONABLE COOL TONIGHT.
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. COULD BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK
WEATHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY,
LIKELY CONTINUING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY NEED HEAT HEADLINES.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING EXTENDS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SET UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ALLOWING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN, THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS
BAD AS HOW WE STARTED JULY. THE HEAT PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY, WHERE
HEAT HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 90S WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PHL AND A FEW OTHER SITES
TAG THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN, BUT ITS UNLIKELY TO REACH THE LEVELS
EXPERIENCED EARLY IN THE MONTH.
A DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 4...LATE WEEK COULD BE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE.
WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT WE ARE MONITORING THE SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO BREAK THE HEAT RIDGE, PUTTING POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IN PLAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
(15% CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 25 MILES FROM ANY POINT).
STORMS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY,
THE INGREDIENTS ARE CERTAINLY THERE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, AS
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION.
IN THEIR LONG TERM OUTLOOK, SPC DID MENTION SOME SMALL MCS
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY 7 TO 10 PERIOD AS SOME SHORTWAVES ARE
LIKELY TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AGAIN, STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. VCSH FOR RDG/ABE THROUGH 02Z BUT NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5 KT OR LESS
THOUGH PERIODS OF CALM LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-ENTER THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS AND WAVES MAY TOUCH 5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR MONDAY, WINDS WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FEET. A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL DEVELOPS AND THERE
IS A PERIOD OF AROUND 7 SECONDS. THERE IS ALSO THE NEW MOON ON
TUESDAY. ALL OF THIS SAID, THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, LOW WAVE
HEIGHTS, AND A BIT OF A SHORTER PERIOD WILL RESULT IN A LOW
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS.
FOR TUESDAY, WINDS BECOME MORE SHORE PARALLEL AS THEY TURN TO BE
MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH. FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS, THESE REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND
7 SECONDS. A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL REMAINS. THE NEW MOON ALSO
FALLS ON THIS DAY. ALL OF THIS SAID, THE WINDS BECOMING MORE
SHORE PARALLEL, LOW WAVE HEIGHTS, AND A BIT OF A SHORTER PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
CLIMATE
A BRIEF 1-DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
LIKELY TO APPROACH RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY,
JULY 15:
ALLENTOWN/ABE 98 IN 1995
AC AIRPORT/ACY 100 IN 1995
AC MARINA/55N 99 IN 1995
GEORGETOWN/GED 96 IN 2024 AND 1993
MOUNT POCONO/MPO 92 IN 1954
PHILADELPHIA/PHL 103 IN 1995
READING/RDG 100 IN 1995
TRENTON/TTN 101 IN 1995
WILMINGTON/ILG 99 IN 1997 AND 1995
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ021>025.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/OHARA/RCM
AVIATION...AKL/HOEFLICH/OHARA/RCM
MARINE...GUZZO/HOEFLICH/OHARA/RCM
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