106
FXUS61 KPHI 130618
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
218 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN
AREA.
ALL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING. FURTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY, LIKELY
CONTINUING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH, AND AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED
FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METRO.
3. LATE WEEK COULD BE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING HAS ENDED FOR TONIGHT.
FURTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
A RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW HAS CONTINUED TODAY RESULTING
IN A MINOR PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES ARE ALSO INCREASING WITH THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON TUESDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED. FURTHER ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED BUT GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN COMING DOWN WITH
TIDAL LEVELS. WILL EVALUATE LATER THIS MORNING AND SEE IF ANY
FURTHER ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER
WITH THE UPCOMING ELEVATED TIDES. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
IN OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
KEY MESSAGE 2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY, LIKELY
CONTINUING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH, AND AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED
FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METRO.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING EXTENDS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SET UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ALLOWING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN. THE HEAT PEAKS ON
WEDNESDAY OVER THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL INTO
THE 90S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
PHL AND A FEW OTHER SITES TAG THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN, BUT
NOTHING LIKE WE SAW TO START JULY. HUMIDITY WILL BE LESS AS
WELL. HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO GET
NEAR 105F OR EVEN HIGHER, POTENTIALLY UP TO 108F. AS A RESULT,
ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. FURTHER HEAT HEADLINES (EITHER ADVISORY OR WARNING)
WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA, BUT THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
A DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LATE WEEK COULD BE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE.
WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT WE ARE MONITORING THE SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO BREAK THE HEAT
RIDGE, PUTTING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
PLAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED SOME OF
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (15% CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
25 MILES FROM ANY POINT) ON FRIDAY. STORMS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN BY
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WITH
AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY, THE INGREDIENTS ARE
CERTAINLY THERE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, AS SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION.
IN THEIR LONG TERM OUTLOOK, SPC DID MENTION SOME SMALL MCS
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY 7 TO 10 PERIOD AS SOME SHORTWAVES ARE
LIKELY TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AGAIN, STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THROUGH 12Z)...VFR. MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS
DEVELOPING BUT CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE ABOVE FL030, KEEPING THINGS
VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/SKC. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. MAINLY DRY THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS STARTING OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE (40-50%) FOR THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS AS
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS COULD GET NEAR 25 KT AT TIMES AND
SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR MONDAY, WINDS WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FEET. A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL DEVELOPS AND THERE
IS A PERIOD OF AROUND 7 SECONDS. THERE IS ALSO THE NEW MOON ON
TUESDAY. ALL OF THIS SAID, THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, LOW WAVE
HEIGHTS, AND A BIT OF A SHORTER PERIOD WILL RESULT IN A LOW
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS.
FOR TUESDAY, WINDS BECOME MORE SHORE PARALLEL AS THEY TURN TO BE
MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH. FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS, THESE REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND
7 SECONDS. A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL REMAINS. THE NEW MOON ALSO
FALLS ON THIS DAY. ALL OF THIS SAID, THE WINDS BECOMING MORE
SHORE PARALLEL, LOW WAVE HEIGHTS, AND A BIT OF A SHORTER PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
CLIMATE
A BRIEF 1-DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
LIKELY TO APPROACH RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY,
JULY 15:
ALLENTOWN/ABE 98 IN 1995
AC AIRPORT/ACY 100 IN 1995
AC MARINA/55N 99 IN 1995
GEORGETOWN/GED 96 IN 2024 AND 1993
MOUNT POCONO/MPO 92 IN 1954
PHILADELPHIA/PHL 103 IN 1995
READING/RDG 100 IN 1995
TRENTON/TTN 101 IN 1995
WILMINGTON/ILG 99 IN 1997 AND 1995
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-104-106.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...HOEFLICH
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