041
FXUS61 KPHI 140531
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
131 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY, LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH WITH EXTREME HEAT WATCHES AND HEAT
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
2. NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
AND ALSO MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
3. SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1..ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BY TUESDAY,
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH WITH EXTREME HEAT WATCHES AND
HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HEAT STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA PUSHING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S BUT THE DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE SO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 90S WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PHL AND A FEW
OTHER SITES TAG THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN, BUT NOTHING LIKE WE SAW
TO START JULY. HUMIDITY WILL BE LESS AS WELL. HOWEVER, HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO GET NEAR 105F OR EVEN
HIGHER, POTENTIALLY TO AROUND 110 OVER PORTIONS OF THE MD
EASTERN SHORE NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S INTO THE LOW/MID 90S COULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE AND ALSO MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING.
WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT ARE MONITORING THE SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT THE
COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS INTO NW NJ LATE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY. SOME MODELS ARE
TRENDING STORMIER WITH THIS PERIOD. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE
CONSENSUS BLEND OF GUIDANCE IS STILL MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, BUT WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS WITHIN THIS PERIOD CLOSELY.
REGARDLESS, MOST MODELS ARE STILL FOCUSING STORM CHANCES WHEN
THE FRONT FINALLY SINKS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STAY OVER OR AT LEAST NEAR THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE WITH THESE PATTERNS FOLLOWING A BUILDING HEAT PATTERN
MID WEEK, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SEVERE THREATS AND
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT
THE SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG WITH THE
MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW UNSTABLE IT WILL GET. THIS WILL
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT AT THIS
POINT WE SEE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THREATS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO AROUND 2+
INCHES. THAT IS WELL ABOUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, INCREASING THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING.
THERE'S UNCERTAINTY THOUGH REGARDING HOW FAST THIS FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH AND ALSO WHETHER IT MAY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF IT MOVES THROUGH FASTER AS THE GFS IS
INDICATING, THINGS COULD START TO CLEAR OUT BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH FAIR WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF HANGS UP THE FRONT OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT MONDAY WITH
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE.
WHILE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE NEW
MOON TOMORROW, FLOW IS TURNING MORE OFFSHORE. THE HIGH TIDE HAS
MOSTLY PASSED AT MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF
THE DELAWARE RIVER), THOUGH SOME SPOTTY TIDAL FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, NO TIDAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AFTER TONIGHT'S
HIGH TIDE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12 KTS
BY 16Z. SOME GUSTS 18-20 KT POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS CURRENTLY APPEARS GREATEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 5
KNOTS OFF THE COAST OF DELAWARE TO 10-15 KNOTS OFF THE COAST OF
MONMOUTH COUNTY. SEAS 2-3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE (40-50%) FOR THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS AS
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS COULD GET NEAR 25 KT AT TIMES AND
SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...WINDS COULD GET NEAR SCA LEVELS BY THE AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TUESDAY, FLOW LARGELY TURNS OFFSHORE WITH A 7 TO 9 SECOND
PERIOD SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS AS WELL,
RESULTING IN A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR MOST OF THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY COAST IN ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES, WHERE SOUTH
FACING BEACHES LOOK TO HAVE SOME ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS WINDS TURN BACK A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY WITH A SEA BREEZE. WAVES
IN THE SURF ZONE LOOK TO INCREASE UP TO 3 FEET, AND AS A RESULT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR THIS AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ALL DAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE COAST, WITH A 6 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS, RESULTING IN A LOW RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
CLIMATE
A BRIEF 1-DAY SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
LIKELY TO APPROACH RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY,
JULY 15:
ALLENTOWN/ABE 98 IN 1995
AC AIRPORT/ACY 100 IN 1995
AC MARINA/55N 99 IN 1995
GEORGETOWN/GED 96 IN 2024 AND 1993
MOUNT POCONO/MPO 92 IN 1954
PHILADELPHIA/PHL 103 IN 1995
READING/RDG 100 IN 1995
TRENTON/TTN 101 IN 1995
WILMINGTON/ILG 99 IN 1997 AND 1995
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-104-106.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-101>103-105.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NJZ010-012-013-015-017>020-027.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-
007>009-014-016-021>026.
DE...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR DEZ001.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
MD...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MDZ012-015-019.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ020.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/JOHNSON
AVIATION...COOPER/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH
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