565
FXUS61 KPHI 032328
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
728 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN FOR HEAT IMPACTS DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, WE WILL HAVE A HOT, HUMID,
AND AT TIMES STORMY PATTERN IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION WILL
WASH OUT OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. A
PLEASANT DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S.
A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO ITS TRACK.
12Z GFS TAKES IT OUT TO SEA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA,
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT INLAND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA, WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL, AND THE 12Z NAM BRINGS IT RIGHT OVER
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, BUT
IT IS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, WHICH IS A 1 OUT OF 4. FOR NOW, WILL FOLLOW THE NBM
AND CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, WE WILL HAVE A
HOT, HUMID, AND AT TIMES STORMY PATTERN IN PLACE.
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS OUR REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN A BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO OUR EAST, AND A MID
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SLOWLY SLIDING EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S./SOUTHERN CANADA. AS SUCH, HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS POINT, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90. THAT IN
AND OF ITSELF IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S POSSIBLE, WE COULD GET HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALL THAT BEING SAID,
THIS STILL DOESN'T LOOK NEARLY AS IMPACTFUL AN EXTREME HEAT
SETUP AS WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS SUMMER DURING THE FIRST WEEK
OF JULY.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS ARE THE DAILY STORM CHANCES, PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN. GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE, WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE MORE COMMON THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING, BUT IN GENERAL, I DON'T
SEE ANY ONE DAY THAT HAS AN ESPECIALLY HIGH THREAT OF ANY OF
THESE AT THIS TIME. IF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES OUR
REGION AS THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES, THAT COULD
INCREASE THE RISK, PARTICULARLY FOR SEVERE THREATS, BUT TRYING
TO TIME THAT OUT AT THIS POINT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT, GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
WITH THE LARGER PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH AT AROUND 5 KTS,
THOUGH THEY MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM FOR A TIME,
MAINLY AT RDG AND ABE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 20%) OF
PATCHY FOG FORMATION, PARTICULARLY IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. GIVEN THE LOW
PROBABILITY, HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY, GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE IN SHRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
SHRA AND TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY,
PRIMARILY FOR ELEVATED SEAS ON THE OCEAN OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, AND THE SCA MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED PRIOR TO THAT. SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT,
HOWEVER, GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT, AND THEN TURN EAST
ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 25+ KT WIND
GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST TODAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS WITH
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR OR ABOVE 3 FEET. FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES,
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS.
FOR TUESDAY, SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD DECREASE SOME. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE A NORTHEAST (ONSHORE) BREEZE AND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS
WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 2-3 FEET IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE NJ SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, SURF HEIGHTS AND SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN
SOME, AND SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE, AND A LOW RISK FOR THE
DELAWARE BEACHES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/JOHNSON/MPS
AVIATION...COOPER/MPS
MARINE...MPS/STAARMANN
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