715
FXUS61 KPHI 040657
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
257 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OTHER SECTIONS UPDATED AS NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, WE WILL HAVE A HOT, HUMID,
AND AT TIMES STORMY PATTERN IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY (TUESDAY), A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT, ALLOWING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD,
BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO ITS TRACK.
THE OVERALL SYSTEM IS WEAK WITH LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA WED-THU. THE RECENT HOT/HUMID
AIRMASS WILL RETURN AND EVEN MINOR LIFTING WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE DRENCHING DOWNPOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH WEAK WINDS FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, WHICH IS A 1 OUT OF 4. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR
NOW, WILL FOLLOW THE NBM AND CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE PRESENTLY FORECASTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND PERHAPS INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, WE WILL HAVE A
HOT, HUMID, AND AT TIMES STORMY PATTERN IN PLACE.
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS OUR REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN A BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO OUR EAST, AND A MID
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SLOWLY SLIDING EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S./SOUTHERN CANADA. AS SUCH, HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS POINT, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S (POCONOS) TO THE LOW 90S
(METRO). THAT IN AND OF ITSELF IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. HOWEVER,
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S POSSIBLE, WE COULD GET HEAT INDEX
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALL THAT BEING
SAID, THIS STILL DOESN'T LOOK NEARLY AS IMPACTFUL AN EXTREME HEAT
SETUP AS WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS SUMMER DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
JULY.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS ARE THE DAILY STORM CHANCES, PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. GIVEN
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, WE CAN'T RULE
OUT THE MORE COMMON THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING, BUT IN GENERAL, I DON'T SEE ANY ONE DAY THAT HAS AN
ESPECIALLY HIGH THREAT OF ANY OF THESE AT THIS TIME. IF AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES OUR REGION AS THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES,
THAT COULD INCREASE THE RISK, PARTICULARLY FOR SEVERE THREATS, BUT
TRYING TO TIME THAT OUT AT THIS POINT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT, GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH
THE LARGER PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY, GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE
AS LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS DAWN.
MEDIUM CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
SHRA AND TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED WITH WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUING TO DECREASE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE TURNED NE TO
E AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS IN. WINDS SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY AND CLOSER TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 25+ KT WIND
GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD DECREASE SOME. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE A NORTHEAST (ONSHORE) BREEZE AND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS
WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 2-3 FEET IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE NJ SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, SURF HEIGHTS AND SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN
SOME, AND SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ SHORE, AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PHI
AVIATION...PHI
MARINE...PHI
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