458
FXUS61 KPHI 042334
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
734 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARM FRONT NORTH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.
2. FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, WE WILL HAVE A HOT, HUMID,
AND AT TIMES STORMY PATTERN IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARM FRONT NORTH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA PUSHES OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND PASSES OUT TO SEA. BEHIND THIS LOW, A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN LATE TONIGHT, AND SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH DEW POINTS UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S, MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE WEDNESDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING, BUT WHEN IT COMES TO A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS, A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
IN THE MORNING. WHILE OVERALL BASIN AVERAGES WILL GENERALLY BE
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
LEADING TO LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. WITH
MOST OF THAT RAIN OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON, THAT CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, WE WILL HAVE A
HOT, HUMID, AND AT TIMES STORMY PATTERN IN PLACE.
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS OUR REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN A BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO OUR EAST, AND A MID
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SLOWLY SLIDING EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S./SOUTHERN CANADA. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S (POCONOS)
TO THE LOW 90S (METRO). HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 70F TO
75F, HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS ARE THE DAILY STORM CHANCES, PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN. GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE, WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE MORE COMMON THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING. IF AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CROSSES OUR REGION AS THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES, THAT COULD INCREASE THE RISK, PARTICULARLY FOR
SEVERE THREATS, BUT TRYING TO TIME THAT OUT AT THIS POINT WOULD
BE VERY DIFFICULT, GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE LARGER PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AFTER 08Z IN FOG AND STRATUS, PARTICULARLY AT KMIV AND
KACY. TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF SOUTH JERSEY MAY ONLY SEE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT BEFORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS FORM AFTER DAWN. E TO SE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHRA IN THE
MORNING, THEN SHRA AND TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. SE WINDS LESS THAN
10 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT BECOME SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KT, THEN
WINDS BECOME SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP IN FOG AND SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 25+ KT WIND
GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR 10 MPH. BREAKING
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF 1-3 FEET ARE FORECAST WITH A MEDIUM
PERIOD SWELL. GIVEN THE MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT FOR MOST OF THE
JERSEY SHORE, MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LOWER
FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES WITH A MORE PARALLEL WIND THEREFORE
WENT WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR THURSDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH.
DESPITE THE INCREASING WIND AND IT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE
COAST AND THE BREAKING WAVES FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE LOWER, A
LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY ARRIVE. OPTED TO GO WITH A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE,
AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKLIN/MPS
AVIATION...AKL/MPS
MARINE...GORSE/MPS
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