440
FXUS61 KPHI 052338
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
738 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED TONIGHT.
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAVY RAINFALL IS TAPERING OFF AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS
DIMINISHED.
2. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY RAINFALL IS TAPERING OFF AND THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING IS DIMINISHED.
THE WARM FRONT IS NOW NORTH OF DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF, BUT
THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, THAT
WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. BRIEF, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.
OTHERWISE, QUITE WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S,
AND DEW POINTS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THAT AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA, OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO WELL ESTABLISHED RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
WHO'S CRITERIA IS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-104 DEGREES. THIS
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, MUCH OF NEW JERSEY
EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS WELL AS NEW CASTLE DELWARE.
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL RUN FROM 10 AM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR INITIALLY, THEN MVFR/IFR CONDS DEVELOP AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. A FEW SHRA MAY IMPACT KRDG/KABE. LGT/VRB
WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
THURSDAY...MVFR CONDS INITIALLY, THEN VFR. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
MAY IMPACT KRDG/KABE, THEN KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG. SW WINDS 5 TO 10
KT IN THE MORNING, THEN 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING.
GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. S WINDS LESS THAN 10
KT. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
ANTICIPATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR THURSDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF
1 TO 3 FEET. THERE WILL BE A LIGHT EASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 10 SECONDS. OPTED TO GO WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR ON FRIDAY, AND AS SUCH, KEPT
A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-017>020-027.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEAL/MPS/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DEAL/MPS/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DEAL/MPS/ROBERTSON
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