367
FXUS61 KPHI 060543
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
143 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
2. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-78 CORRIDOR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE WARM FRONT IS NOW NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF
THE HEAVY RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, THAT WILL
IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.
OTHERWISE, QUITE WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S, AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THAT AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA, OUR AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO WELL ESTABLISHED RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
WHO'S CRITERIA IS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-104 DEGREES. THIS
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, MUCH OF NEW JERSEY
EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS WELL AS NEW CASTLE DELWARE.
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL RUN FROM 10 AM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR INITIALLY, THOUGH A BANK OF STRATUS WILL SINK
SOUTH TO AROUND RDG/TTN/ABE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOUTH OF THERE, PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP. A FEW SHRA MAY IMPACT KRDG/KABE. WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS
FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
THURSDAY...ANY RESTRICTIONS AROUND 12Z WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 13-14Z. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT KRDG/KABE, THEN
KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS FOR
TSRA AT THE I-95 TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS, BECOMING
GUSTY AT ACY BY 18Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHRA/TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING.
GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS 5 KTS OR
LESS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY FOG
DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY, THOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY, AND PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-4 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO PREVAILING MARINE HAZARDS ARE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND MONDAY, WHICH
COULD LOCALLY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-20 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET, GREATEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR THURSDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF
1 TO 3 FEET. THERE WILL BE A LIGHT EASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 10 SECONDS. OPTED TO GO WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR ON FRIDAY, AND AS SUCH, KEPT
A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-017>020-027.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEAL/MPS/ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
AVIATION...DEAL/MPS/ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
MARINE...MPS/STAARMANN
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