285
FXUS61 KPHI 080003
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 8 PM, THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR ALL COUNTIES.
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AT LEAST A
MARGINAL RISK EACH DAY FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
REGION. QUASI ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND, MOST NOTABLY, VERY HUMID CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE LOOK TO
HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY, USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR. THIS WILL GIVE SOME SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM THE EXCESSIVE
HUMIDITY, THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RETURN AGAIN BY MONDAY THOUGH, AND HOT AND
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP BREAK THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY SOME.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, MUCH OF NEW JERSEY EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES,
AS WELL AS NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DELWARE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK EACH DAY FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL
COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, STORM INTENSITY HAS
WANED. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING, HOWEVER NO FURTHER
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY, THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS MORE UNCLEAR. THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PWATS LOOK SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN TODAY, AND MEAN FLOW IS A BIT MORE WESTERLY THAN SOUTHWESTERLY,
BUT OVERALL THE THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR SIMILAR. THERE WILL BE LESS
FORCING, SO THE COVERAGE IS MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO TODAY. WE
REMAIN IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FROM WPC. IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, SPC HAS ADDED A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST OF OUR AREA WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
WE LOOK TO HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY, USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
HELP BRIEFLY LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND
FORCING ALOFT WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AS MEAN FLOW SHIFTS MORE
WESTERLY AND MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GREATER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COMPARED TO THIS WEEK, AND
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER FLASH FLOODING THREAT, BUT THE DETAILS INTO
THE PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN UNCLEAR. LONG STORY SHORT, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LOOK TO CONTINUE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP BREAK THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
SOME, BUT THE PATTERN ALOFT MAY STILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY 02Z. SOME
INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR KRDG/KABE
MAINLY AFTER 08Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES AT SOME SITES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OVERALL.
SATURDAY...VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW. SOUTHWEST
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 7-12 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
NO PREVAILING MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO PREVAILING MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND SHOULD INCREASE
SOME TO 10-20 MPH. BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE SOME, ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, AT 2
TO 4 FEET. GIVEN THE INCREASING SURF AND SOUTHERLY WINDS, WENT
WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE. BREAKING WAVES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LOWER STILL FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES AND COASTAL MONMOUTH
COUNTY, THEREFORE WENT WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SUNDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10-20 MPH. BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET. GIVEN THE INCREASING
SURF AND SOUTHERLY WINDS, WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE.
BREAKING WAVES SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER STILL FOR THE DELAWARE
BEACHES AND COASTAL MONMOUTH COUNTY, THEREFORE WENT WITH A LOW
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ008>010-012>015-
017>020-027.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/GUZZO/STAARMANN
AVIATION...DESILVA/FRANKLIN/STAARMANN
MARINE...GORSE/GUZZO/STAARMANN
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