897
FXUS61 KPHI 080548
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
148 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK EACH DAY FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
REGION. QUASI ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND, MOST NOTABLY, VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WE LOOK TO HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY,
USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THIS WILL GIVE SOME SLIGHT
REPRIEVE FROM THE EXCESSIVE HUMIDITY, THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RETURN
AGAIN BY MONDAY THOUGH, AND HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP BREAK THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
SOME.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, MUCH OF NEW JERSEY EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DELWARE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK EACH DAY FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
ON SATURDAY, THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS MORE UNCLEAR.
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PWATS LOOK
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY, AND MEAN FLOW IS A BIT MORE WESTERLY
THAN SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT OVERALL THE THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR
SIMILAR. THERE WILL BE LESS FORCING, SO THE COVERAGE IS MORE
ISOLATED COMPARED TO TODAY. WE REMAIN IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC. IN TERMS OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, SPC HAS ADDED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 5) RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WE LOOK TO HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY, USHERING
IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL HELP BRIEFLY LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE AND FORCING ALOFT WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AS MEAN FLOW
SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY AND MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A GREATER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COMPARED TO THIS
WEEK, AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER FLASH FLOODING THREAT, BUT THE
DETAILS INTO THE PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN UNCLEAR. LONG
STORY SHORT, MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO CONTINUE THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP BREAK THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY SOME, BUT THE PATTERN ALOFT MAY STILL SUPPORT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...PREVAILING VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED, HOWEVER SOME
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF I-95.
THIS WILL IMPACT KRDG/KABE/TTN WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OVERALL.
SATURDAY...VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
ON WHERE ANY OF THIS MAY DEVELOP IS LOW. OPTED TO INCLUDE PROB30
GROUPS FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
NEAR 10 KTS, WITH GUSTS NEAR 18 KTS BY 18Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
PREVAILING VFR, LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER AND STORM DETAILS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING VFR, THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
NO PREVAILING MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.
A 20-40% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO PREVAILING MARINE HAZARDS
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND SHOULD INCREASE
SOME TO 10-20 MPH. BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE SOME, ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, AT 2
TO 4 FEET. GIVEN THE INCREASING SURF AND SOUTHERLY WINDS, WENT
WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE. BREAKING WAVES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LOWER STILL FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES AND COASTAL MONMOUTH
COUNTY, THEREFORE WENT WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SUNDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS SATURDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10-20 MPH. BREAKING WAVES IN
THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET. GIVEN THE
INCREASING SURF AND SOUTHERLY WINDS, WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY
SHORE. BREAKING WAVES SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER STILL FOR THE
DELAWARE BEACHES AND COASTAL MONMOUTH COUNTY, THEREFORE WENT
WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ008>010-
012>015-017>020-027.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/GUZZO/STAARMANN
AVIATION...STAARMANN
MARINE...GORSE/STAARMANN
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