898
FXUS61 KPHI 230539
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
139 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
2. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER SUNDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE
INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ACCOMPANIED IT SO FAR.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS FAR SOUTH DELAWARE IS POSSIBLE
HOWEVER.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ATTM WILL MOVE E-NE TOWARDS SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THROUGH AT A TIME WHEN HEATING
WILL BE AT A MINIMUM, WE STILL HAVE SOME GOOD DYNAMICS AND A HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. ACCORDINGLY, WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL FROPA ON SUNDAY. POPS
ARE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTER/NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
CHANCE FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST.
THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SEEMS TO OVERALL BE RATHER LOW
WITH AMPLE STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SOAKERS FROM STALLING
ACROSS ONE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
OF RAIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS PERHAPS GETTING AROUND AN INCH.
THE HIGHER TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
NORTH NJ.
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE AND WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AND PEAKING BEFORE FROPA SUNDAY, WE COULD SEE SOME INSTANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER, AGAIN, THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST
WHERE THE SPC HAS KEPT THE MARGINAL TAG FOR THE UPDATED DAY2 OUTLOOK.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR EARLY SUNDAY.
THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE BEST
DYNAMICS EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. RAINS AND THUNDER WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PUSH IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER SUNDAY
AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME SUBTLE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE
IN CONTROL, RESULTING IN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS
STRETCH.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA WITH SCATTERED TSRA
THREAT FOR TSRA DIMINISHING. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR DEVELOPING
AS WELL. LGT/VRB WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST. W TO SW
WINDS INCREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THEN BECOME W TO NW 10
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. LGT/VRB WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL MOSTLY BE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOSTLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY TONIGHT THEN TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LATE. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME WEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD AROUND AROUND MIDDAY. FOLLWING THE FRONT, A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING, ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER
THEREAFTER.
RIP CURRENTS...
REST OF TODAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH BREAKING
WAVES OF 2 TO 3 FEET AND EASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 6 TO
8 SECONDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE
AND A LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE
MORNING, THEN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH A 6 TO 8 SECOND
PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE
AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPS/OHARA/STAARMANN
AVIATION...MPS/OHARA/STAARMANN
MARINE...MPS/OHARA/STAARMANN
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