973
FXUS61 KPHI 230716
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
316 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.
2. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER SUNDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL FIRST PULL A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THEN A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO NEW JERSEY, WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CIN OVER THE AREA, THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
INTO AN AREA WITH MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG. SO THESE STORMS
MAY BUBBLE UP A BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME 40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR 2 GOING INTO DAYBREAK.
COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A
DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROPPING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TO THE LOW 60. SKIES
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER SUNDAY
AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME SUBTLE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE
IN CONTROL, RESULTING IN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS
STRETCH.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA WITH SCATTERED TSRA
THREAT FOR TSRA DIMINISHING. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR DEVELOPING
AS WELL. LGT/VRB WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST. W TO SW
WINDS INCREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THEN BECOME W TO NW 10
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. LGT/VRB WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL MOSTLY BE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL START OUT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT, THEN WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS TURN WEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, THEN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS THIS MORNING, TURN
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE, THEN WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH A 6 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE
BEACHES.
ON MONDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 1 TO 2
FEET. THERE WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 6 TO
8 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPS/OHARA/STAARMANN
AVIATION...MPS/OHARA/STAARMANN
MARINE...MPS/OHARA/STAARMANN
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