660
FXUS61 KPHI 241044
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
644 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF DELMARVA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2. A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY, WILL BE FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY BY A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WILL STILL BE
CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH TOMORROW. AS A RESULT,
WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN
LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN TROUGH, THE MAIN AREA THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS IN NJ AND SE PA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY NORTH OF DELMARVA. AT
THIS POINT, MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS ARE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT THE RISK FOR OTHER
HAZARDS IS QUITE LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY, WILL BE FOLLOWED VERY
CLOSELY BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
BY THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW BEHIND A WARM FRONT, HELPING BRING DEW POINTS BACK INTO
THE LOW-70S. THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY WITH AND BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE TIMING OF THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS, SO
UNCERTAIN ON THE SEVERE AND FLOODING RISK AT THIS POINT, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHRA AND
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z, PARTICULARLY FROM KPHL
NORTHWARD, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED SO CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. W TO WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS. WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTH
OF WEST TOWARD 00Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS MOSTLY OUT
OF THE WEST, BUT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE, PARTICULARLY AFTER
00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
DEVELOPING LATE, OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A WARM
FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 1 TO 2
FEET. THERE WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 6 TO
8 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH SIMILAR SEAS AND
SURF CONDITIONS AS MONDAY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...WFO PHI
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