533
FXUS61 KPHI 242306
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
706 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2. A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY, WILL BE FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY BY A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WILL STILL BE
CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT,
WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN
LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN TROUGH, THE MAIN AREA THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS IN NJ AND SE PA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY NORTH OF DELMARVA. AT
THIS POINT, MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS ARE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT THE RISK FOR OTHER
HAZARDS IS QUITE LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY, WILL BE FOLLOWED VERY
CLOSELY BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
BY THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW BEHIND A WARM FRONT, HELPING BRING DEW POINTS BACK INTO
THE LOW-70S. THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY WITH AND BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE TIMING OF THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS, SO
UNCERTAIN ON THE SEVERE AND FLOODING RISK AT THIS POINT, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE, BUT COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL AT ANY TERMINAL
REMAINS VERY LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
DEVELOPING LATE, OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A WARM
FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS...
ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH BREAKING WAVES STILL AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME
MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELLS, THOUGH SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS WITH OFFSHORE WINDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS
A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE
BEACHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR
10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. A MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL WILL
PERSIST WITH BREAKING WAVES NEAR 1 TO 2 FEET DURING MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...WFO PHI
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