065
FXUS61 KPHI 251014
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2. A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN.
3. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL RELATIVELY
CLOSE - CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, UNLIKE YESTERDAY, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE A STOUT MID-LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE DURING THIS TIME, SO THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON HAS DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN.
BY THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW BEHIND A WARM FRONT, HELPING BRING DEW POINTS BACK INTO
THE LOW-70S. MODELS CAME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL. WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY START
MOVING IN, AT LEAST TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION, BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. I DON'T
EXPECT THAT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL SEE RAIN ALL DAY, RATHER WILL
LIKELY BE OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AS FOR THE HAZARDS, THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 4) RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7 OR 1.8 IN. THAT IS CLOSE TO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS LOWER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH SOME RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WARM CLOUD LAYER IS THINNER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10K FT DURING THE AFTERNOON).
THUS, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.
FOR SEVERE HAZARDS, IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT FORECASTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE MODEST
(CAPE VALUES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG, AND
BULK SHEAR NEAR OR BELOW 30KT). THAT BEING SAID, IT ALWAYS BEARS
WATCHING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SHALLOW
LAYER OF DIRECTIONAL (VEERING) SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND
ON FRIDAY.
THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS, AND THERE IS STILL DIFFERENCES BOTH RUN-
TO-RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS IN BOTH THE TIMING, AND IF THIS WILL
BE A SINGLE COLD FRONT, OR AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN BEHIND IT. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH TODAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10 KTS.
TONIGHT...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS FAVORING
WESTERLY INITIALLY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...PREVAILING VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PREVAILING VFR, BUT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFTER 06Z THURSDAY CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY
COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
SATURDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY ON THE NJ COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A WARM
FRONT.
SATURDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH BREAKING WAVES STILL AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME
MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELLS, THOUGH SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS WITH OFFSHORE WINDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS
A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE
BEACHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR
10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. A MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL WILL
PERSIST WITH BREAKING WAVES NEAR 1 TO 2 FEET DURING MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...WFO PHI
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