903
FXUS61 KPHI 251837
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED MARINE AND DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN.
2. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN.
BY THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW BEHIND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
70S. SHOWERS WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR THE HAZARDS, THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 150% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE
HEAVY RECENT RAINS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.
FOR SEVERE HAZARDS, WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS EVENT,
THEREFORE MINIMIZING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN
BOTH THE TIMING, AND IF THIS WILL BE A SINGLE COLD FRONT, OR AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMING IN BEHIND IT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
WHERE LOW PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD.
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY INITIALLY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR LIGHT AND VARIABLE MORNING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PREVAILING VFR, BUT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFTER 06Z THURSDAY CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY
COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A WARM
FRONT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH BREAKING WAVES STILL AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME
MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELLS, THOUGH SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS WITH OFFSHORE WINDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS
A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE
BEACHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR
10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. A MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL WILL
PERSIST WITH BREAKING WAVES NEAR 1 TO 2 FEET DURING MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...WFO PHI
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