345
FXUS61 KPHI 280706
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RIP CURRENT SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
2. HEAT AND HUMIDITY CREEP BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.
THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN BOTH
THE TIMING, AND IF THIS WILL BE A SINGLE COLD FRONT, OR AN INITIAL
COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN
BEHIND IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EAST AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ONLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
APPEAR TO BE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHERN AREAS SATURDAY WHERE LOW PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY CREEP BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO
CREEP BACK INTO THE LOW 70S. OVERALL DRY WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THROUGH 12Z)...PATCHY FOG AND AND LOW CEILINGS
POSSIBLE BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR OR LOWER. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOW CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...PREVAILING VFR, BUT PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY FOR PHL/ILG/MIV/ACY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LOW CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR FRIDAY, WINDS IN THE MORNING ARE MORE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL REMAINS WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SECONDS
WITH BREAKING WAVES AROUND 2-3 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND A LOW RISK AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, NNE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH BEFORE TURNING E TO ENE
IN THE AFTERNOON. A 1 TO 2 FOOT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS LINGERS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
THE JERSEY SHORE AND A LOW RISK AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...WFO PHI
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