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FXUS61 KPHI 282316
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
716 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT STILL LOCATED NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, IT LOOKS DRIER INTO AT LEAST
TOMORROW. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY KEEPING THE
AREA DRY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN NEXT WEEK
WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO
CREEP BACK INTO THE LOW 70S. ONE OTHER ASPECT TO WATCH WITH THIS
RIDGING PATTERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF A WARM
FRONT NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT LOCATION, TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
CURRENTLY, THE MAIN DAYS TO MONITOR ARE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
REGARDING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BE FOR A PERIOD OF AN HOUR OR TWO
AT MOST. OTHERWISE, NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SATURDAY, NNE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH WHILE TURNING E TO ENE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 1 TO 2
FOOT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 7-8 SECONDS. AS A
RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE
AND A LOW RISK AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON SUNDAY, S TO SSW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. A 1 FOOT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF
7-8 SECONDS LINGERS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...WFO PHI
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