836
FXUS61 KPHI 290722
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
2. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY, WITH A COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. OVERALL, A
VERY PLEASANT AND DRY DAY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
AS WINDS GO CALM IN MANY AREAS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S,
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL RETURN STARTING SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. SEVERE
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
ONE OTHER ASPECT TO WATCH WITH THIS RIDGING PATTERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT
LOCATION, TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE. CURRENTLY, THE MAIN DAYS TO MONITOR
ARE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REGARDING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. NNE WINDS 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 18Z. SEA, BAY, AND RIVER BREEZES SHOULD
THEN FAVOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS FOR PHL AND
SOUTH. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PREVAILING VFR, THOUGH SOME PATCH FOG IS POSSIBLE.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG
POTENTIAL.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS, BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BE FOR A PERIOD OF AN HOUR
OR TWO AT MOST. OTHERWISE, NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHTER AND SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO PREVAILING MARINE
HAZARDS EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NNE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH WHILE TURNING E TO ENE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 1 TO 2
FOOT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 7-8 SECONDS. AS A
RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE
AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON SUNDAY, S TO SSW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. A 1 FOOT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 7-8
SECONDS LINGERS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...WFO PHI
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