871
FXUS61 KPHI 020540
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
140 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY REMAINS LOW.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH ON
FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO INCHED UP A FEW
DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TODAY INTO TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SPARK ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT IT WILL BE WORKING AGAINST A
RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
2. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY.
3. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, MAINLY FROM PHILADELPHIA SOUTH.
4. THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TODAY INTO TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD
SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT IT WILL BE
WORKING AGAINST A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE
SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR
REGION IN THE RELATIVELY COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS NORTH
OF THE FRONT. THE NET RESULT IS THAT OUR REGION SHOULD BE IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, AND RELATIVELY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS A RESULT, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LIMITED, WITH MOSTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS STILL QUITE
CONDITIONAL AND UNCERTAIN. GIVEN HOW SHARP OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING, THERE WILL BE AMPLE FORCING, BUT IT
IS A QUESTION OF IF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN STORMS IN OUR REGION.
WITH THAT SAID, SOME CAMS DO FEATURE STORMS MOVING INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS IS RELATIVELY LOW, BUT SHOULD THE REGION EXPERIENCE MORE
DESTABILIZATION THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, SOME HAIL, AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
AFTER A COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY FOR MOST NEIGHBORHOODS (5 TO 10
DEGREES LOWER - LESS ACROSS DELMARVA), HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR MANY AREAS
(AROUND 80 OR LOW 80S FAR N AND W). THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
WELL INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S SOUTH OF I-78, PERHAPS EVEN AS HIGH AS
105 DEGREES FOR DELMARVA.
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, MAINLY FROM
PHILADELPHIA SOUTH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS DELMARVA,
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH.
SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY FROM ABOUT WILMINGTON TO WILDWOOD NJ SOUTHWARD AND A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1) TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SEVERE THREATS, INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES, DEPENDING ON HOW ALL THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS PAN OUT. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
TYPICALLY LOWER WITH THESE PATTERNS, BUT NOT ZERO. TRAINING CAN
STILL OCCUR AND A SINGLE LOCALE COULD HAVE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL.
FRIDAY'S SPC'S 15% PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF OUR DELMARVA ZONES, THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS. OUR LATEST FORECAST HAS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF ABOUT PHILADELPHIA.
KEY MESSAGE 4...THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
BY SATURDAY, CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LARGELY
END ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THUS, LABOR DAY WEEKEND
IS STILL SHAPING UP TO FEATURE NICE WEATHER, WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWER HUMIDITY. THE ONLY
ROAD BUMP AT THE MOMENT, COULD BE A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME BEFORE SETTLING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS. SOME PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY
TIME THAT COULD ALSO RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS, HOWEVER, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXTENT OF STORM DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW. WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS, BEFORE SHIFTING MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY BY 18-21Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS. EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY (20-40% CHANCE), MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY STORMS, PARTICULARLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE (40 TO 50%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR FRIDAY, THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (30 TO 40%) SHIFTS SOUTH A BIT, BASICALLY
EXTENDING FROM MANASQUAN INLET, NJ DOWN TO FENWICK ISLAND, DE.
RIP CURRENTS...
ON WEDNESDAY, NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE WILL BE
SOUTHEAST SWELLS WITH A PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS AND BREAKING
WAVES OF 2 TO 3 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE JERSEY SHORE ALONG MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND ATLANTIC
COUNTIES, AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE IN CAPE MAY
COUNTY AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR THURSDAY, WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE. BREAKING WAVES WILL RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 FEET WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD AROUND
6 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE JERSEY SHORE ALONG MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES,
AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE IN CAPE MAY COUNTY
AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/WFO PHI
AVIATION...COOPER/WFO PHI
MARINE...MPS
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