486
FXUS61 KPHI 180803
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO CLEARING SKIES.
2. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, BUT DEW POINTS WILL FALL
SLIGHTLY, MAKING IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING UP INTO
THE 70S. CONDITIONS SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN FROM TIME
TO TIME IS POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING OUT FROM THAT LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS FIRST
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
AS LOW PRESSURE DRAWS NEARER TO THE REGION, SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S AND
PWATS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, AND THAT FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH TOWARDS DELMARVA BY MONDAY MORNING, WHERE IT WILL STALL
OUT.
WPC NOW HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (2 OUT OF 4)
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A MARGINAL
RISK ALSO CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION INTO MONDAY.
SEVERAL MORE DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AND THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME. FOR NOW, POPS ARE LIMITED TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT (CHANCE)
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THROUGH 12Z)...PRIMARILY VFR. PATCHY FOG AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS BECOMING NW BY DAWN. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY... VFR EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY THEN MOSTLY
SUNNY EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT... PREVAILING VFR. NNE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-VFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN
SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA (MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT),
LOW STRATUS, AND FOG.
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AROUND WITH
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS.
MARINE
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS
LINGER AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TURN NE IN
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SURGING TO AROUND 15-20 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SCA HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY
FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AND 4 TO 6 FT. GALES POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
30 KTS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 1 TO 2
FEET WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD.
AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE
AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
SATURDAY...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
EASTERLY SWELLS WITH A 10 TO 12 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR MONMOUTH COUNTY AND OCEAN
COUNTY SHORES AND A LOW RISK FOR ATLANTIC COUNTY AND COASTAL
CAPE MAY COUNTY SHORES AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJL
AVIATION...AKL/MJL
MARINE...MJL
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