141
FXUS61 KPHI 190549
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
149 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS, THERE IS INCREASED CONCERN FOR MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 03Z SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION
SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
2. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY, PASSING NORTH OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.
TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DELMARVA AS A COOLER AIRMASS STARTS TO SETTLE INTO
THE REGION. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AROUND. IT SHOULD BE
NOTABLY COOLER HOWEVER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING OUT FROM THAT LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS FIRST
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
A WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LOW PRESSURE DRAWS NEARER TO THE REGION, SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AS WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE
60S AND LOW 70S AND PWATS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. LOW
PRESSURE THEN PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH
VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP FROM
TIME TO TIME. AS THAT LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OUT OVER DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING.
WPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (2 OUT OF
4) FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A MARGINAL
RISK ALSO CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION INTO MONDAY.
SEVERAL MORE DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, AND THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. FOR NOW, POPS ARE LIMITED TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT
(CHANCE) GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND WILL MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE
JERSEY SHORE AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
ONSHORE FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO START BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AS AREAS OF RAIN APPROACH, AS FROM THE EAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW/MARINE STRATUS MOVING IN. CONSEQUENTLY THE I95 TAF
SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG) MAY BE THE LAST TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS (POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 09Z), WHILE THE OTHER TAF SITES
(KRDG, KABE, KACY, AND KMIV) ARE LIKELY TO HAVE PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS BY AROUND 03Z.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM NNE TO E TO EVENTUALLY
SE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AT OR
BELOW 10KT, EXCEPT AT KACY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHRA,
ISOLATED TSRA (MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT).
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS AROUND WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NJ ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF GREAT EGG INLET FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH SEAS INCREASING TO NEAR 5 FEET. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY DIMINISH,
WITH DIMINISHING SEAS AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING
BELOW 5 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED STARTING
ON MONDAY FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT AND 4 TO 6 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 KTS. SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS 10
TO 15 FT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
SATURDAY...EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
EASTERLY SWELLS WITH A 10 TO 12 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR MONMOUTH COUNTY AND OCEAN COUNTY SHORES
AND A LOW RISK FOR ATLANTIC COUNTY AND COASTAL CAPE MAY COUNTY
SHORES AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN AROUND 15 TO
20 MPH. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE LOOK TO BE AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE DELAWARE
BEACHES. WE WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE WHERE THERE'S MORE OF
A ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>452.
DISCUSSION...AKL/COOPER/MPS
AVIATION...AKL/COOPER/SJ
MARINE...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS/MJL/MPS
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