946
FXUS61 KPHI 190817
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY, RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY, THOUGH
THERE REMAINS AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH
EXACTLY HOW CLOSE IT WILL GET TO THE COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
2. A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND, ESPECIALLY FOR DELMARVA THROUGH MID WEEK.
3. A CLOSED LOW COULD DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST BY THURSDAY,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN, AND INCREASING THE
RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW
ORGANIZES AND DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE WARM FRONT, SHOULD
START TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO MODEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT ASSOCIATE WITH THE CYCLOGENSIS.
AS FAR AS HAZARDS, THERE REMAINS A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS, HOWEVER THAT THREAT HAS
DECREASED SLIGHTLY. AT THE SURFACE, A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW, GRADUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY. AS SUCH, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT HIGH ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE LOW AND THEN FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS THE MAIN FACTOR WHY
FORECASTED RAIN AMOUNTS NOW RANGE FROM 0.1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NEVER REALLY LINE UP WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS, THUS LIMITING LIFT.
THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS A MARGINAL, OR 1 OUT OF 4,
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, AND IF IT OCCURS OVER URBAN
AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, IF THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO LIFT INTO
OUR REGION, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT COULD HAVE
THE RISK FOR OTHER THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS IS LOW DUE TO VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND, ESPECIALLY FOR DELMARVA THROUGH MID
WEEK.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON MONDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. HOW FAR SOUTH THAT FRONT STALLS WILL
BE A BIG FACTOR IN HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
FURTHER SOUTH IT STALLS, THE LESS LIKELY OUR REGION WILL SEE
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. REGARDLESS, OUR REGION
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOWER THAN WHAT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD SPARK
ANOTHER ROUND OF CYCLOGENSIS BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
THE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRIEFLY,
THOUGH IT WILL STILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A CLOSED LOW COULD DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST BY
THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN, AND
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING.
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, THERE LOOKS TO BE AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS
DON'T SHOW THIS LOW CLOSING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT IS NOT THE ONLY WAY THE MODELS DIFFER; THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW, RANGING FROM
THE GFS SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS CLOSE AS 120 MILES FROM
OUR COAST, TO THE ICON, WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW GETTING NO
CLOSER THAN 500 MILES FROM OUR COAST!
THE CLOSER THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS TO THE COAST, THE MORE
LIKELY OUR REGION IS TO SEE RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
IT ALSO BEARS WATCHING AS IT COULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THE FULL MOON IS ON SATURDAY, SEPT 26, SO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL ONLY INCREASE THE RISK AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FULL MOON.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.
AFTER 00Z, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO START BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AS AREAS OF RAIN APPROACH, AS FROM THE EAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW/MARINE STRATUS MOVING IN. CONSEQUENTLY THE I95 TAF
SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG) MAY BE THE LAST TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS (POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 09Z), WHILE THE OTHER TAF SITES
(KRDG, KABE, KACY, AND KMIV) ARE LIKELY TO HAVE PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS BY AROUND 03Z.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM NNE TO E TO EVENTUALLY
SE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AT OR
BELOW 10KT, EXCEPT AT KACY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHRA,
ISOLATED TSRA (MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT).
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS AROUND WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NJ ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF GREAT EGG INLET THROUGH 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH SEAS INCREASING TO NEAR 5 FEET. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO EAST- NORTHEAST GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH, WITH DIMINISHING SEAS AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE
ADVISORY AREA, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT WITH
SEAS REMAINING BELOW 5 FEET.
ONCE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED STARTING
ON MONDAY FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT AND 4 TO 6 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 KTS. SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS 10
TO 15 FT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
SATURDAY...EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
EASTERLY SWELLS WITH A 10 TO 12 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR MONMOUTH COUNTY AND OCEAN COUNTY SHORES
AND A LOW RISK FOR ATLANTIC COUNTY AND COASTAL CAPE MAY COUNTY
SHORES AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN AROUND 15 TO
20 MPH. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE LOOK TO BE AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE DELAWARE
BEACHES. THERE IS A FORECAST OF A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS
AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ AND DE COAST.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>452.
DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...WFO PHI
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