792
FXUS61 KPHI 221117
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
717 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FOR WEDNESDAY.
GALE WATCHES UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY, AND LINGERING INTO TONIGHT FOR DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
2. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THIS WEEK WILL KEEP PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, IT COULD BRING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
3. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK. THE FIRST BATCH OF COASTAL FLOOD
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH MORE LIKELY TO COME.
4. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED AT THE
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, AND LINGERING INTO TONIGHT FOR DELMARVA
AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT HAS
STALLED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. STRENGTHENING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, FALLING HEIGHTS FROM AN APPROACHING TROUGH,
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-78. STRENGTHENING SURFACE
RIDGING TO OUR NORTH INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN, ENDING THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
FROM THE PHILLY METRO AND NORTH. SOUTH OF THERE, A FEW SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SHOW FOR TODAY'S RAIN WILL BE THROUGH MIDDAY
AND WIND DOWN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
STARTING TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
60S, PERHAPS BRIEFLY REACHING NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS NEAR THE WARM OCEAN WATER. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S AREAWIDE THROUGH MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO 50S THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THIS WEEK WILL
KEEP PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, IT COULD BRING
INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OF PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE INITIAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST,
WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER
PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WILL AT LEAST LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NEAR THE COAST. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND
THUS WINDS, ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS DELMARVA
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN A CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 25-35 MPH ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ON WEDNESDAY, WE
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL STRIP. THE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MODELS NOW
FALL INTO TWO RELATIVELY DISTINCT CAMPS, WITH ONE CAMP
CONTINUING TO TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THE OTHER CAMP HAS THE LOW DEVIATING DUE NORTHWARD OR EVEN
NORTHWESTWARD TO OUR REGION. THE EC ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY
CLUSTERED FAIRLY TIGHTLY NEAR THE DETERMINISTIC EC, WHICH WOULD
FAVOR THIS SCENARIO. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
HAS THE LOW CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD AND THE GEFS ONLY HAS A FEW
MEMBERS BRINGING THE LOW TOWARDS THE COAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES
BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS IS SUBSTANTIAL. SHOULD THE LOW TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION, ANY RAIN WOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, IF ANY, AND WINDS WOULD DECREASE
QUICKER. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST OR EVEN INTO THE COAST
WOULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM RAIN AND
WIND. FOR NOW, POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE 20-40% RANGE, AND
HIGHEST SOUTHEAST OF I-95. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE ARE
SEVERAL MEMBERS IN THE ENSEMBLE SUITES WHICH FEATURE A MIDDLE
GROUND SCENARIO, WHERE THE LOW DOES DEVIATE SOME BUT STILL
REMAINS FAIRLY COMFORTABLY OFFSHORE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAD TO
SOME IMPACTS FROM RAIN AND WIND, BUT THE INLAND EXTENT WOULD BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY AS
WE TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC IMPACTS AND TIMING OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK. THE FIRST BATCH OF
COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH MORE LIKELY TO
COME.
WITH A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM INCREASINGLY LIKELY, THE
THREAT FOR TIDAL FLOODING HAS INCREASED. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
THAT IS PROJECTED TO LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN WATER
PILING UP ACROSS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES AND WITHIN BACK BAYS OF
COASTAL COMMUNITIES. TIDAL LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED WITH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES INCREASING WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON ON
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
TIDAL FLOODING, SOME OF WHICH COULD GET TO THE MODERATE STAGE.
WHILE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST, THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING IS
NOT OFF THE TABLE, ESPECIALLY GETTING NEAR THE FULL MOON.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BEGINS AS EARLY AS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR OCEAN, ATLANTIC, AND CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY AND KENT
AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE. FOR THOSE SAME AREAS, TIDE LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
POTENTIALLY GETTING TO MODERATE STAGE. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. MODERATE
TIDAL FLOODING COULD EVEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, CANNOT RULE OUT TIDE LEVELS REACHING MAJOR,
GIVEN THE SETUP.
FOR THE REST OF THE NJ COAST NORTH OF BARNEGAT INLET, TIDE
LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH MINOR ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED, BUT
TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY BELOW MODERATE AT
THIS TIME AND LOWER WATER LEVELS THAN IN AREAS IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY. THE SAME GOES FOR THE NEW JERSEY SIDE
OF DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
WITHIN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. USUALLY, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DO
NOT RESULT IN TIDAL FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE
EXPECTED AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY.
A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LINGER OFF OUR WATERS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS, BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH SEAS FOR OUR MARINE ZONES. BY WEDNESDAY, BREAKING WAVES
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE OF 6 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND THE BENCHMARK BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY THAT HIGH
SURF, MAKING IT EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TO ENTER THE WATER AT ANY
TIME THIS WEEK. THE HIGH SURF AND STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RIP CURRENT AND HIGH SURF FORECAST,
THE HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BEACHES AS WELL BEGINNING TONIGHT
(WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL MONMOUTH COUNTY) THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, WHEN BREAKING WAVES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE WILL BE AROUND
6-12 FEET.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...MVFR DEVELOPING EARLY WITH LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS, THEN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY FOR MOST
TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-21Z (EXCEPT FOR ACY/MIV). SOME SHOWERS
LINGER INTO LATE MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH. PROBABILITY OF IFR IS
LOW. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS PREVAIL WITH 15-20 KT
GUSTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY FOR
ACY/MIV WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS, GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL, BUT LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES COULD STILL LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS, BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
NORTH WINDS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
BEGINNING TONIGHT, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL
COASTAL WATERS, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PEAKING AROUND
25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. DANGEROUS SEAS
BUILDING 8-15 FEET.
THE GALE WATCHES WERE ALL UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY LINGER
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL LOW, WHICH IS UNCERTAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND SEA SPRAY.
RIP CURRENTS...SEE KEY MESSAGE 4.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NJZ020-022>027.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ020-022>027.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NJZ024>026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ014-024>026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NJZ014.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DEZ004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR DEZ004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-
450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ431-450>455-480>483-485.
DISCUSSION...AKL/COOPER/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
AVIATION...AKL/COOPER/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/COOPER/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
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