393
FXUS61 KPHI 221839
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
239 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE #1 UPDATED.
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH THE COASTAL LOW
PROGRESSION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY IN IMPACTS FROM RAIN AND WIND TO LOCATIONS
NEAR THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELMARVA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
2. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THIS WEEK WILL KEEP PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, IT COULD BRING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE PARTS OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
3. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK. THE FIRST BATCH OF COASTAL FLOOD
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH MORE LIKELY TO COME.
4. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED AT THE
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, AND LINGERING INTO TONIGHT FOR DELMARVA
AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO PUSH ITS
INFLUENCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTH NJ
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE THINNING AS A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STEADY RAINS (CURRENTLY
ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY AND WITH THE
DRIER AIR DEEPENING ACROSS THE REGION MORE WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED, BUT STILL SOME CLOUDINESS FOR DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN-MOST NJ.
A CONTINUING NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN
MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT
OF THE 60S AREAWIDE WED. AND THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO 50S THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THIS WEEK WILL
KEEP PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, IT COULD BRING
INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE PARTS OF
THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, WITH THE
LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
THE INITIAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE
NORTHEAST, WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG HIGH CENTERED
OVER PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION WILL AT LEAST LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NEAR THE COAST. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT, AND THUS WINDS, ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS DELMARVA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN A CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 25-35 MPH ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ON WEDNESDAY, A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL STRIP
FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS
NEAR 45 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
LARGELY SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. ONE CAMP ALLOWS THE LOW TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION, AND THE
OTHER CAMP FEATURES A WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE LOW, OR EVEN
ADDITIONAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE COAST. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS, UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS QUITE HIGH,
WITH A LARGE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. THE DETERMINISTIC EC
AND ALL OF ITS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE SCENARIO THAT
WOULD LEAD TO GREATER IMPACTS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS REMAINS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO KEEP IMPACTS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MINIMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS TRENDED WESTWARD SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS FEATURE SOLUTIONS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE EC. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A SINGLE-RUN
DEVIATION OR THE BEGINNING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS. FOR NOW FEATURE POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE ALONG THE
COAST FRIDAY, EXPANDING INLAND TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AND
AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SCENARIO PANS OUT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS WILL BE
HIGHEST CLOSE TO THE COAST AND DECREASE WITH INLAND EXTENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO
ULTIMATELY PANS OUT, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE
AREA, ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK. THE FIRST BATCH OF
COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH MORE LIKELY TO
COME.
WITH A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM INCREASINGLY LIKELY, THE
THREAT FOR TIDAL FLOODING HAS INCREASED. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
THAT IS PROJECTED TO LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN WATER
PILING UP ACROSS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES AND WITHIN BACK BAYS OF
COASTAL COMMUNITIES. TIDAL LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED WITH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES INCREASING WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON ON
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
TIDAL FLOODING, SOME OF WHICH COULD GET TO THE MODERATE STAGE.
WHILE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST, THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING IS
NOT OFF THE TABLE, ESPECIALLY GETTING NEAR THE FULL MOON.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BEGINS AS EARLY AS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR OCEAN, ATLANTIC, AND CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY AND KENT
AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE. FOR THOSE SAME AREAS, TIDE LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
POTENTIALLY GETTING TO MODERATE STAGE. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. MODERATE
TIDAL FLOODING COULD EVEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, CANNOT RULE OUT TIDE LEVELS REACHING MAJOR,
GIVEN THE SETUP.
FOR THE REST OF THE NJ COAST NORTH OF BARNEGAT INLET, TIDE
LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH MINOR ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED, BUT
TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY BELOW MODERATE AT
THIS TIME AND LOWER WATER LEVELS THAN IN AREAS IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY. THE SAME GOES FOR THE NEW JERSEY SIDE
OF DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
WITHIN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. USUALLY, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DO
NOT RESULT IN TIDAL FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE
EXPECTED AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY.
A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LINGER OFF OUR WATERS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS, BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH SEAS FOR OUR MARINE ZONES. BY WEDNESDAY, BREAKING WAVES
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE OF 6 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND THE BENCHMARK BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY THAT HIGH
SURF, MAKING IT EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TO ENTER THE WATER AT ANY
TIME THIS WEEK. THE HIGH SURF AND STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RIP CURRENT AND HIGH SURF FORECAST,
THE HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BEACHES AS WELL BEGINNING TONIGHT
(WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL MONMOUTH COUNTY) THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, WHEN BREAKING WAVES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE WILL BE AROUND
6-12 FEET.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS THRU THE NIGHT. A
FEW MVFR CIGS FOR KILG/KMIV INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOWEVER.
ALSO, KACY MAY HAVE MVFR CIGS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 20 KTS. MEDIUM CONFID.
WEDNESDAY... VFR EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOS
AREAS AND SOME CLOUDS FOR KILG/KMIV/KACY. NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS. GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORE AREAS. HIGH/MEDIUM CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, BUT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH GALES
BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
BEGINNING TONIGHT, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL
COASTAL WATERS, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PEAKING AROUND
25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. DANGEROUS SEAS
BUILDING 8-15 FEET.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIODS OF GALES
LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN RAIN AND
SEA SPRAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...SEE KEY MESSAGE 4.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ020-
022>027.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ020-022>027.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NJZ024>026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ014-024>026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NJZ014.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DEZ004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR DEZ004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-
450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ431-450>455-480>483-485.
DISCUSSION...AKL/COOPER/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
AVIATION...AKL/COOPER/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/COOPER/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
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