345
FXUS61 KPHI 222307
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
707 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST KEY MESSAGE. ALSO UPDATED AVIATION
SECTION FOR 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT
FOR DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
2. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THIS WEEK WILL KEEP PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
TO NORTH FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW, IT COULD BRING INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE PARTS OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
3. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR
THIS WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED.
4. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT
FOR DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO PUSH ITS
INFLUENCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTH NJ THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE THINNING AS A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
STRENGTHENS. THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STEADY RAINS (CURRENTLY ACROSS
DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE LARGELY ENDING BY
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THIS WEEK WILL KEEP PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, IT COULD BRING INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES
AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE PARTS OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. THE INITIAL TRACK OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST, WELL OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, A
SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL AT LEAST LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEAR THE COAST. THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THUS WINDS, ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ACROSS DELMARVA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN A CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 25-35 MPH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ON WEDNESDAY, A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL STRIP FROM 6 AM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LARGELY
SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. ONE CAMP ALLOWS THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION, AND THE OTHER CAMP FEATURES A
WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE LOW, OR EVEN ADDITIONAL SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE COAST. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, UNCERTAINTY
FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS QUITE HIGH, WITH A LARGE RANGE OF
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. THE DETERMINISTIC EC AND ALL OF ITS ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE SCENARIO THAT WOULD LEAD TO GREATER IMPACTS.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO KEEP IMPACTS
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MINIMAL
RAINFALL. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS TRENDED
WESTWARD SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON, AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS FEATURE
SOLUTIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE EC. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A
SINGLE-RUN DEVIATION OR THE BEGINNING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF BETTER
MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW FEATURE POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE ALONG THE
COAST FRIDAY, EXPANDING INLAND TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AND
AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO
PANS OUT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST CLOSE TO
THE COAST AND DECREASE WITH INLAND EXTENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO ULTIMATELY
PANS OUT, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA, ALLOWING
RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR
THIS WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED.
WITH A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM EXPECTED, THE THREAT FOR TIDAL
FLOODING HAS INCREASED. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THAT IS PROJECTED
TO LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN WATER PILING UP ACROSS
TIDAL TRIBUTARIES AND WITHIN BACK BAYS OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
TIDAL LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
INCREASING WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON ON SATURDAY. THIS
COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD TIDAL FLOODING,
SOME OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GET TO THE MODERATE STAGE. WHILE
NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST, THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OFF
THE TABLE, ESPECIALLY GETTING NEAR THE FULL MOON.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BEGINS WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WAS
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND SALEM
COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEP WATER PILING IN
THE DELAWARE BAY.
THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OCEAN, ATLANTIC, AND CAPE
MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY AND KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE
AS WELL. FOR THESE SAME AREAS, TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO
MODERATE STAGE. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING'S HIGH
TIDE. MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING COULD EVEN CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, CANNOT RULE OUT TIDE LEVELS
REACHING MAJOR, GIVEN THE SETUP.
FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE NJ
COAST NORTH OF BARNEGAT INLET AND ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY, TIDE
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIDESPREAD MINOR ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS A RESULT.
AS WITH THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE, WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
WITHIN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. USUALLY, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DO
NOT RESULT IN TIDAL FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED AT
THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY.
A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER OFF OUR
WATERS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS, BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
OUR MARINE ZONES. BY WEDNESDAY, BREAKING WAVES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
OF 6 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH THE COASTAL STORM CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND
THE BENCHMARK BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGH SURF, MAKING IT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO ENTER THE
WATER AT ANY TIME THIS WEEK. THE HIGH SURF AND STRONG WINDS COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND
DELAWARE BEACHES.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RIP CURRENT AND HIGH SURF FORECAST, THE
HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL BEACHES AS WELL BEGINNING TONIGHT (WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL MONMOUTH COUNTY) THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WHEN BREAKING
WAVES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE WILL BE AROUND 6-12 FEET.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR MIV AND ACY AS THESE SITES ARE
LIKELY TO GO BACK DOWN TO MVFR CIGS BY AROUND 4Z. ALSO EXPECT
SOME RAIN AROUND THIS EVENING FROM AROUND PHL SOUTHWARD BUT
THIS SHOULD LARGELY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AT MIV AND ACY
BUT OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS. GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS. HIGH/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, BUT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH GALES
BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
BEGINNING TONIGHT, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL
COASTAL WATERS, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PEAKING AROUND
25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. DANGEROUS SEAS
BUILDING 8-15 FEET.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIODS OF GALES
LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN RAIN AND
SEA SPRAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...SEE KEY MESSAGE 4.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
NJZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ020-
022>027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NJZ020-022>027.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ024>026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ014-024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NJZ012>014-021.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NJZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DEZ004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455-
480>483-485.
DISCUSSION...AKL/COOPER/FITZSIMMONS/PO
AVIATION...AKL/COOPER/FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/COOPER/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
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