983
FXUS61 KPHI 230541
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE PUSHED UP TO BEGIN AT 10 PM
TUESDAY FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTY, DE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT FOR
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
2. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THIS WEEK WILL KEEP PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, IT COULD BRING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE PARTS OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
3. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR
THIS WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED.
4. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED AT THE
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FOR DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO PUSH
ITS INFLUENCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTH NJ
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE THINNING AS A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STEADY RAINS (CURRENTLY
ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE LARGELY
ENDING BY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THIS WEEK WILL
KEEP PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, IT COULD BRING
INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE PARTS OF
THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, WITH THE
LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
THE INITIAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE
NORTHEAST, WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG HIGH CENTERED
OVER PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION WILL AT LEAST LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NEAR THE COAST. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT, AND THUS WINDS, ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS DELMARVA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN A CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 25-35 MPH ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ON WEDNESDAY, A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL STRIP
FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS
NEAR 45 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
LARGELY SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. ONE CAMP ALLOWS THE LOW TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION, AND THE
OTHER CAMP FEATURES A WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE LOW, OR EVEN
ADDITIONAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE COAST. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS, UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS QUITE HIGH,
WITH A LARGE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. THE DETERMINISTIC EC
AND ALL OF ITS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE SCENARIO THAT
WOULD LEAD TO GREATER IMPACTS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS REMAINS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO KEEP IMPACTS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MINIMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS TRENDED WESTWARD SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS FEATURE SOLUTIONS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE EC. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A SINGLE-RUN
DEVIATION OR THE BEGINNING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS. FOR NOW FEATURE POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE ALONG THE
COAST FRIDAY, EXPANDING INLAND TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AND
AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SCENARIO PANS OUT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS WILL BE
HIGHEST CLOSE TO THE COAST AND DECREASE WITH INLAND EXTENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO
ULTIMATELY PANS OUT, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE
AREA, ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ISSUED.
WITH A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM EXPECTED, THE THREAT FOR TIDAL
FLOODING HAS INCREASED. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THAT IS PROJECTED
TO LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN WATER PILING UP ACROSS
TIDAL TRIBUTARIES AND WITHIN BACK BAYS OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
TIDAL LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
INCREASING WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON ON SATURDAY. THIS
COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD TIDAL FLOODING,
SOME OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GET TO THE MODERATE STAGE. WHILE
NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST, THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT OFF
THE TABLE, ESPECIALLY GETTING NEAR THE FULL MOON. TIDAL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT AT NEARLY ALL OF
OUR FORECAST POINTS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS MODERATE TO EVEN MAJOR
FLOODING FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE SOME BARELY HAS TIDE LEVELS
GETTING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. IT ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK
OF THE COASTAL STORM.
MOST AREAS WITHIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY SAW WIDESPREAD
MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY BACK BAY COMMUNITIES. THE FIRST
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES EXPIRED AT 10 PM FOR THE SOUTH JERSEY
COAST AND DELAWARE COAST. HOWEVER, NEW GUIDANCE FOR SOME OF OUR
BACK BAY GAUGES WITHIN THE INDIAN RIVER AND REHOBOTH BAY SHOW
WATER LEVELS POTENTIALLY STAYING NEAR MINOR EVEN TOWARDS LOW
TIDE. AS A RESULT, THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WAS PUSHED UP TO
BEGIN AT 10 PM FOR KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTY, DE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS BEGIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NJ ATLANTIC
COASTLINE SOUTH OF BARNEGAT INLET. THE NORTHERN DELAWARE BAY
STILL HAS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE NJ
COAST NORTH OF BARNEGAT INLET AND ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY, TIDE
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIDESPREAD MINOR ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS A RESULT.
AS WITH THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE, WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
WITHIN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. USUALLY, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DO
NOT RESULT IN TIDAL FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE
EXPECTED AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY.
A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
LINGER OFF OUR WATERS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS, BRINGING STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH SEAS FOR OUR MARINE ZONES. BY WEDNESDAY, BREAKING WAVES
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE OF 6 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND THE BENCHMARK BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH SURF,
MAKING IT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO ENTER THE WATER AT ANY TIME
THIS WEEK. THE HIGH SURF AND STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RIP CURRENT AND HIGH SURF FORECAST,
THE HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BEACHES AS WELL BEGINNING TONIGHT
(WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL MONMOUTH COUNTY) THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY,
WHEN BREAKING WAVES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE WILL BE AROUND 6-12
FEET.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR EXCEPT FOR MIV AND ACY, AS THESE SITES ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
LINGERING SOUTH OF PHL, THOUGH THESE WILL NOT CAUSE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE AT MIV AND ACY THROUGH 14Z,
THOUGH CURRENTLY FORECASTING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR PRIOR TO 12Z.
VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS. GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE AT ACY AND
NEAR OTHER COASTAL AREAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, THOUGH
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO NEAR MVFR AT MIV/ACY LATE. NORTHEAST WINDS
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, BUT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
MARINE
BEGINNING TONIGHT, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL
COASTAL WATERS, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PEAKING AROUND
25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. DANGEROUS SEAS
BUILDING 8-15 FEET.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SEA
SPRAY.
OUTLOOK...
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIODS OF GALES
LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN RAIN AND
SEA SPRAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...SEE KEY MESSAGE 4.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
NJZ016.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ024>026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR NJZ014-024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NJZ012>014-021.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NJZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NJZ020-022>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DEZ004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455-
480>483-485.
DISCUSSION...AKL/COOPER/FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/PO
AVIATION...STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/COOPER/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
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