377
FXUS61 KPHI 062345
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY BRINGS FROST TO PARTS OF THE
REGION TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY.
2. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
3. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY BRINGS FROST TO
PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT A COOL AIRMASS TO THE AREA. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
DUE TO THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING WINDS UNDER THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH. FOR THESE REASONS OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT NBM TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE MENTION OF PATCHY
FROST IN THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS INCLUDING INTERIOR SOUTHERN
NJ. FARTHER NORTH, FROST IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE
SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR
POCONO ZONES AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THESE AREA HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES RADIATING TO NEAR FREEZING. THAT SAID,
WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF SOME COLDER LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NJ PINE BARRENS, MADE A RUN AT 32
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S CHILLY WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY AS A DRY
FRONT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ARRIVAL TIME IN THE AREA. THE ECMWF
HAS THE RAIN SHIELD FROM THE SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE AREAS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE MOST OF OUR OTHER GUIDANCE HOLDS THE SYSTEM
OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IN ANY EVENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH
IT (PWATS POTENTIALLY REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES) SO THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE 1-2 INCHES.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING CALM AT
TIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/SKC. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7-12 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...VFR TO START BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY
DEPENDING ON ON WHEN NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH LOW STRATUS AND
RAIN.
MARINE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5
KT TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR TONIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-20
KT BY LATE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KT WILL BE POSSIBLE SO IT WILL BE AT LEAST CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT IT'S MARGINAL, WE ARE
HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
AVIATION...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page