288
FXUS61 KPHI 071713
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
113 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
2. THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS
ANTICIPATED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S
CHILLY WEATHER TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. IN FACT HIGHS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, PERHAPS EVEN TOUCHING
80, THOUGH LATEST NBM HAS NUDGED THE TEMPS DOWN A BIT. THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY AS A DRY FRONT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RE- ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
ISAIAS WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM (WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS) APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ARRIVAL TIME IN THE AREA. THE
LATEST ECMWF SLOWED DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO ITS EARLIER RUN,
WHILE THE GFS HAS SPED UP. IN ANY EVENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
WITH IT (PWATS POTENTIALLY REACHING A RATHER TROPICAL 2 INCHES)
SO THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AREAS TO SEE 1-2 INCHES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7-12 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS MAY BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY AROUND 5 KNOTS
SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO AROUND 7-12 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS
NOW TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING THROUGH, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW STRATUS
AND RAIN.
MARINE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT BY LATE DAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE SO IT WILL BE AT LEAST CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT IT'S MARGINAL, WE ARE
HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SCA POSSIBLE AS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS
NOW TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS/RCM
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
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