032
FXUS61 KPHI 071723
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
123 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
2. THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS
ANTICIPATED.
ALOFT, A CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND THE
HUDSON BAY AND INTO QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN US. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY.
AFTER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, A BRIEF
WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED, WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S. THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND NUDGE
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. NEAR- NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, SO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
ISAIAS WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IN THE GULF. IT IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND
MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. FROM THERE,
IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND CONTINUE
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY.
TIMING DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT OF
ISAIAS WILL BRING SOME IMPACTS TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
INTO EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, IT APPEARS THAT
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT PWATS ARE MODELED TO BE IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE, SO SOME
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC HAS PLACED MOST
OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA COULD END UP WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7-12 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS MAY BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY AROUND 5 KNOTS
SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO AROUND 7-12 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS
NOW TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING THROUGH, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW STRATUS
AND RAIN.
MARINE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
TO 15- 20 KTS. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL COME UP JUST SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AT AROUND THE SAME MAGNITUDE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING.
SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KTS AND SEAS BELOW 5
FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND PERHAPS SPRAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
MARINE...COOPER
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