973
FXUS61 KPHI 080445
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1245 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
2. THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS
ANTICIPATED.
ALOFT, A CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND THE
HUDSON BAY AND INTO QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN US. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY.
AFTER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, A BRIEF
WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED, WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S. THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND NUDGE
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. NEAR- NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, SO TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF. IT IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND MAKE
LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. FROM THERE, IT IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND CONTINUE
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY.
TIMING DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS WILL BRING SOME IMPACTS TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
INTO EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, IT APPEARS THAT
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT PWATS ARE MODELED TO BE IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE, SO SOME
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC HAS PLACED MOST
OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA COULD END UP WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...VFR. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3-8
KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT EARLY , BECOME
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS
NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVING THROUGH, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW STRATUS
AND RAIN.
MARINE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS EVENING TO AROUND
15-20 KT. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OFF THE
COAST OF MONMOUTH COUNTY AND NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY, BUT GUSTS
HAVE REALLY BEEN SPORADIC IN NATURE AND VARYING IN OCCURRENCE.
GIVEN THIS, HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE OF
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY IN WAKE OF
THE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KTS AND SEAS BELOW 5
FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET AS
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVE THROUGH. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND PERHAPS SPRAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER
AVIATION...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/RCM
MARINE...COOPER/DESILVA
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