113
FXUS61 KPHI 082237
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
637 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TRANQUIL, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
2. THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING CONTINUING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY
WEATHER. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO GENERALLY GET DOWN INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE WILMINGTON THROUGH
PHILADELPHIA URBAN CORRIDOR, DELMARVA, AND COASTAL NJ. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SO
NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT THAT
BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH, THIN CIRRUS OVER
PORTIONS OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ BUT IT WILL OTHERWISE BE A
MAINLY SUNNY DAY.
FRIDAY EVENING, THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT WILL THEN START TO GRADUALLY RETREAT
EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM NORTHWARD
IN THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER IT REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY HOWEVER THE WINDS
WILL BE COMING AROUND TO EASTERLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH SO THIS WILL KEEP IT A BIT COOLER NEAR THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN BACK TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS
CURRENTLY HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF. IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH. FROM THERE, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD TOWARDS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.
SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES OF SEVERAL HOURS REMAIN AMONGST MODEL
GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL BRING SOME IMPACTS TO THE REGION
BEGINNING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO EARLY
MONDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT PWATS ARE
MODELED TO BE IN THE 1.5-2+ INCH RANGE, SO SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR .50
TO 1.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING BUT WITH MORE RAIN FALLING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY, STORM TOTALS IN THE 1.0 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE WILL BE QUITE
POSSIBLE. IT'S EVEN STILL POSSIBLE SOME AREAS COULD SEE OVER 2.0
INCHES BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS IS LOW. WPC HAS PLACED
MOST OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY MEANING AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT IN THE MORNING, THEN 10 TO
15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS, VEERING TO THE N-NE
LATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AT
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 1-2 FEET BY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY IN WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT TODAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KTS AND SEAS BELOW 5
FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET AS
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVE THROUGH. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND PERHAPS SPRAY.
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS RETURN TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
AVIATION...COOPER/MPS
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page