380
FXUS61 KPHI 090749
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES AND MARINE SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TRANQUIL, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
2. THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT, BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SO NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SOME CIRRUS HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE CREEPING NORTHWARD AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES, BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD GET THROUGH IT FOR THE MOST
PART.
THIS EVENING, THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT WILL THEN START TO GRADUALLY RETREAT
EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM NORTHWARD
IN THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER IT REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY HOWEVER THE WINDS
WILL BE COMING AROUND TO EASTERLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH SO THIS WILL KEEP IT A BIT COOLER NEAR THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN BACK TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS
CURRENTLY HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF. IT MAY INTENSIFY
FURTHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.
FROM THERE, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD TOWARDS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DIRECTION
OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.
SOME MODEST TIMING DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE
THIS MORNING, BUT THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS WILL BRING SOME IMPACTS TO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME,
IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT PWATS ARE MODELED TO BE IN THE 1.5-2+ INCH
RANGE, SO SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR STORM TOTALS IN THE 1.0 TO 2.0 INCH
RANGE. SOME AREAS COULD SEE OVER 2.0 INCHES, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF HIGHER TOTALS PRESENTLY LOCATED IN THE DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. WPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A
MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY
MEANING AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...VFR. W-NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT IN THE MORNING, THEN 10 TO
15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS, BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
LATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
WINDS CONTINUE MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST FOR TODAY AT AROUND 5-10
KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 1-2 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KTS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET AS
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVE THROUGH. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND PERHAPS SPRAY.
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS RETURN TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
AVIATION...COOPER/MPS/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
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