958
FXUS61 KPHI 100530
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
130 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TRANQUIL, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
2. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MODERATE RAIN, BREEZY CONDITIONS,
AND A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO.
3. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAY MORNING'S HIGH
TIDE, MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS WITHIN DELAWARE BAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS, THOUGH IT
WILL BE A BIT BREEZY UNTIL THIS EVENING. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTFLOW FROM ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. TONIGHT, WINDS
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL
FAIRLY QUICKLY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS NOT YET MOVED IN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE POCONOS,
LEHIGH VALLEY, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN NJ, THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN PA AND MOST OF NJ, AND
LOW 50S ACROSS DELMARVA.
ON SATURDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. IT WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY, BUT STILL IN THE LOW 70S FOR MOST. HOWEVER, AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, WINDS WILL SETTLE OUT
OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
DOWN EVEN FURTHER FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MODERATE RAIN,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WHEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF WILL BE
IMPACTING OUR REGION. ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL THIS
EVENING IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS IT BEGINS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. FROM THERE, IT IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE DIRECTION OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD CONSENSUS THAT ISAIAS'S REMNANTS
WILL IMPACT OUR REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE IMPACT,
ALONG WITH BREEZE ESE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. PWATS ARE MODELED TO BE IN THE 1.5-2+
INCH RANGE, SO WHILE THE RAIN SHOULD BE MAINLY STRATIFORM IN
NATURE, SOME PERIODS OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. RAIN WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY.
THE RAINFALL FORECAST HAS REMAINED MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM
BEFORE, AND WE EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1-2" RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS
OUR AREA, WITH POTENTIALLY FOR ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3"
POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
TOWARD THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA, BUT THIS COULD
SHIFT LOCATIONS. WPC HAS MAINTAINED MOST OF THE REGION IN A
MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY,
MEANING AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT, HOWEVER SOME LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PONDING ON ROADS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO RIVER GAUGES FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE, HOWEVER IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN NJ (ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-3" RANGE), THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME GAUGES IN THE RARITAN BASIN (NAMELY THE MILLSTONE RIVER) TO
RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
ESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE (PERHAPS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
MUCH OF THE DAY. LONG STORY SHORT, A WET AND BREEZY SUNDAY.
ASIDE FROM THE RAIN, WITH THE SYSTEM LIFTING OVER OUR REGION,
SHEAR AND CAPE MAY REACH VALUES JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY, MAINLY FOR THE LOW RISK OF A
BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST. SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAY
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE, MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS WITHIN DELAWARE
BAY.
WITH A PERIOD OF EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED AND THE
UPCOMING NEW MOON, INCREASED TIDAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SPOTTY TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING, MAINLY FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG DELAWARE
BAY. THE ONLY FORECAST POINT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
WIDESPREAD MINOR IS BOWERS BEACH, BUT FURTHER NORTH, REEDY POINT
COULD HIT THAT LEVEL AS WELL. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
OR TWO TO DETERMINE IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CAPE MAY AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN
NJ AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE ONLY REACHING SPOTTY MINOR.
OVERALL THOUGH, THIS EVENT WILL BE NOTHING LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS NO TIDAL FLOODING FOR AREAS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE MAY COUNTY. THE FORECAST FOR
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY ALSO HAS TIDE LEVELS
STAYING BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THROUGH 12Z)...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS LGT/VRB OVERNIGHT. CALM PERIODS LIKELY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS. GUSTY ESE WINDS ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY NNW WINDS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING, BECOMING
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
EAST ON SATURDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 1-3
FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HAZARDS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH
WINDS UNDER 25 KTS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GALE FORCE ESE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY, THEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY. GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE ZONES FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
INTO MONDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN AND
PERHAPS SPRAY.
TUESDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS PROBABLE
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-451>455.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ481>483-485.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM/STAARMANN
AVIATION...AKL/COOPER/MJL/RCM/STAARMANN
MARINE...COOPER/RCM/STAARMANN
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