013
FXUS61 KPHI 101737
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
137 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MODERATE RAIN, BREEZY CONDITIONS,
AND A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO.
2. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAY MORNING'S HIGH
TIDE, MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS WITHIN DELAWARE BAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MODERATE RAIN,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WHEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF WILL BE
IMPACTING OUR REGION. ISAIAS MADE LANDFALL YESTERDAY EVENING IN
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NOW CONTINUES TO INTERACT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS ONGOING AND
THE RESULTANT HYBRID LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE DIRECTION OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD CONSENSUS THAT ISAIAS'S REMNANTS
WILL IMPACT OUR REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE IMPACT,
ALONG WITH BREEZE ESE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. PWATS ARE MODELED TO BE IN THE 1.5-2+
INCH RANGE, SO WHILE THE RAIN SHOULD BE MAINLY STRATIFORM IN
NATURE, SOME PERIODS OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. RAIN WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY.
THE RAINFALL FORECAST HAS REMAINED MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM
BEFORE, AND WE EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1-2" RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS
OUR AREA, WITH POTENTIALLY FOR ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3"
POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WHERE THE HEAVIEST
CORRIDOR OF RAINFALL WILL BE, BUT CONTINUES TO MOST LIKELY BE
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON NARROWING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY
LOW. WPC HAS MAINTAINED MOST OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK
(1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY, MEANING AT LEAST
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLOODING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT,
HOWEVER SOME LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PONDING ON ROADS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
RIVER GAUGES FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE, HOWEVER IF THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN NJ (ESPECIALLY IN THE
2-3" RANGE), THIS COULD CAUSE SOME GAUGES IN THE RARITAN BASIN
(NAMELY THE MILLSTONE RIVER) TO RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
ESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE (PERHAPS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
MUCH OF THE DAY. LONG STORY SHORT, A WET AND BREEZY SUNDAY.
ASIDE FROM THE RAIN, WITH THE SYSTEM LIFTING OVER OUR REGION,
SHEAR AND CAPE MAY REACH VALUES JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY, MAINLY FOR THE LOW RISK OF A
BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST. SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAY
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE, MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS WITHIN DELAWARE
BAY.
WITH A PERIOD OF EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED AND THE
UPCOMING NEW MOON, INCREASED TIDAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SPOTTY TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING, MAINLY FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG DELAWARE
BAY. THE ONLY FORECAST POINT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
WIDESPREAD MINOR IS BOWERS BEACH, BUT FURTHER NORTH, REEDY POINT
COULD HIT THAT LEVEL AS WELL. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
OR TWO TO DETERMINE IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CAPE MAY AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN
NJ AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE ONLY REACHING SPOTTY MINOR.
OVERALL THOUGH, THIS EVENT WILL BE NOTHING LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS NO TIDAL FLOODING FOR AREAS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE MAY COUNTY. THE FORECAST FOR
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY ALSO HAS TIDE LEVELS
STAYING BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS AND AN EASTERLY WIND
AT 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. CEILINGS LOWER OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK AND QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR TOWARDS MID-MORNING DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS ALSO REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST BUT INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WNW WINDS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TODAY TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS
1-3 FEET, INCREASING TO 2-4 FEET TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GALE FORCE ESE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY, THEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY. GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE ZONES FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FEET ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
INTO MONDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN AND
PERHAPS SPRAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-451>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ450.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ481>483-485.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/MJL/WFO PHI
AVIATION...GUZZO/MJL
MARINE...GORSE/GUZZO/MJL
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