803
FXUS61 KPHI 120021
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
821 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MONDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE AS WELL AS A PORTION OF THE DELAWARE BAY COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
2. WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING FOR
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTS IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
3. INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME SHOWER CHANCES. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BY THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES GET MUCH COOLER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RAINS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WAS FORMERLY ISAIAS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
WHILE MOVING NE ACROSS THE WESTERN NC/VA AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND IT WILL CONTINUE NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AREAS OVERNIGHT.
THE FIRST LARGE AREA OF RAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NE
ACROSS THE PA/NJ AREAS WHILE A BACK EDGE OF STEADY RAINS IS
TRAILING ACROSS ERN MD/DE. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THIS AREA WILL
FILL IN AFTER SUNSET AS MORE DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS TOO. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, MOST SPOTS WILL NOT HAVE ONE. DELMARVA
AND SOUTH NJ ARE THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE SOME THUNDER.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OR NORTHEAST FOR MOST AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES BY LATE TONIGHT WINDS COULD TURN
SOUTH ACROSS SE DELAWARE NEAR WHERE THE LOW PASSES BY.
A SOAKING RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED, BUT MORE OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING STORM TOTAL RAINS UP INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE FOR MOST
AREAS. THE RAINS (SO FAR) HAVE OCCURRED AT A RATE WHICH HAS
LIMITED ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE
THE CASE OVERNIGHT TOO. LIMITED PONDING ON ROADS AND OTHER MINOR
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED HOWEVER. WPC HAS MAINTAINED MOST OF
THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT, WHICH MEANS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE RAINS END TONIGHT, WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THRU DAWN. LOWER VSBYS IN FOG MAY CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL CONCERNS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTS IN NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE.
WHILE WE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NEW MOON, AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANT LOW, TIDAL LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL REMAIN SHORE
PARALLEL IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS WILL TRAP WATER ALONG THE
COAST, AND PARTICULARLY IN THE BACK BAYS, RESULTING IN A ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN COAST IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AS WELL AS ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY SHORE IN KENT COUNTY, DELAWARE.
SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE DELAWARE BAY COASTS, THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER, THE RARITAN BAY COAST, AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COAST IN MONMOUTH COUNTY.
NO TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BY
THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES GET MUCH COOLER.
AN EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP
THE FLOW MORE ZONAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK. THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT LEADING TO SOME SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEK. A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOOKS LIMITED. THE COLD
FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MORE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
BY THURSDAY, IT IS DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES, ON TUESDAY HIGHS REACH THE 70S FOR MANY WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGHS MAINLY REACH THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE IN THE 60S FOR MOST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF VARIATION AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THIS
BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS OF RIGHT NOW, AT
THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE TIME PERIOD OF
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME FRIDAY LEADING TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW
70S. OVER THE WEEKEND, FORECAST HIGHS ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S. IT WILL
ALSO BE A WINDY PERIOD DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE NORTH AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LEADING TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN RA/BR/LOW STRATUS. CONDS LIFT TO IFR LATE
TONIGHT. E-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT EARLY, BECOMING LGT/VRB,
THEN BECOMING N AROUND 10 KT LATE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY OR AFTER 18Z. N WINDS 10
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AT 10 KT
OR LESS LATE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS AND
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A TSTM. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE COMMON TOO. SCA
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE THRU THE PERIOD BUT A COUPLE LOW-END GALE
GUSTS COULD OCCUR TOO. WINDS ACROSS DELAWARE BAY WILL PROBABLY
BECOME SUB-SCA LATER THIS EVENING BUT WE'LL LEAVE THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION TIME (10PM) ALONE FOR NOW AND MONITOR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 25-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020-
022>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...AKL/GUZZO/PO
AVIATION...GUZZO/MPS/PO
MARINE...GUZZO/PO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page