672
FXUS61 KPHI 121845
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
245 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY BRINGS AN END TO THE WARMTH AS MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
2. SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY BRINGS AN END TO THE
WARMTH AS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE EAST
DURING FRIDAY, THEN GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
DRIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH.
A MILD AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT, THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE FOR A TIME (PEAKING ON FRIDAY). SOME SHOWERS THOUGH LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM,
HOWEVER THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. AS OF NOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S
(COLDER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN). A GUSTY WIND SATURDAY DUE TO COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ADD TO THE
CHILL. IF THE WIND DROPS OFF ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME FROST OR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA. THE AIR MASS THEN STARTS TO MODIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
AS OF 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON, WATER LEVELS ARE COMING DOWN FOLLOWING
THE MORNING HIGH TIDE BUT THERE'S STILL WATER TRAPPED IN SOME OF THE
BACK BAY AREAS OF SUSSEX COUNTY, DE AND OCEAN COUNTY, NJ (MAINLY
BARNEGAT BAY). AS A RESULT, WE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 5 PM. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2 PM. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH
TUESDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR PLACES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND DELAWARE BAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AS
WE GET FARTHER WAY FROM THE NEW MOON.
NO TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BUT FOG IS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS FOR MANY TERMINALS. HIGH
CONFID EXCEPT WITH REGARDS TO FOR FORMATION. NW WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS. EARLY THEN CALM OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY... VFR EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 5 TO 10
KNOTS. HIGH CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
MARINE FLAGS WILL CONTINUE AS IS. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE SEAS
MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT BEFORE THE PRESENT FLAG EXPIRATION TIME
HOWEVER. FAIR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PROBABLE, WITH
A PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/PO
MARINE...GORSE/PO
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