496
FXUS65 KPIH 151044
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
344 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2024
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS POISED OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL
MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AS A LOW TRACKS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER EASTERN
IDAHO LATER TODAY AND BRINGS SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WINDS WITH IT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND 40 DEGREES WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE PLAIN, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHORTLY AFTER. IN
THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY, THAT SWITCH OVER LIKELY HAPPENS BETWEEN
3- 5 PM. AROUND POCATELLO, THE SWITCH OVER WILL BE AROUND 5-7 PM.
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY, SOUTH HILLS, LOWER SNAKE PLAIN, BEAR RIVER RANGE, AND MONIDA
PASS AREA. FOR MONIDA PASS, SNOW TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE SNOW TOTAL AROUND 5 INCHES. FOR
EMIGRATION PASS, SNOW TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH
HIGHER TOTALS ABOVE PASS LEVEL. THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY, SOUTH
HILLS, AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AS SNOW TOTALS
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE A CONVERGENCE BAND OF SNOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT.
IN GENERAL, SNOW TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES, BUT WE HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF A BOOM OR BUST SITUATION. THE NAM WANTS
TO BRING CONVERGENCE BAND OF SNOW THROUGH THE BURLEY TO OAKLEY AREA,
WHICH WOULD PUSH TOTALS CLOSER TO 3 TO 4 INCHES WHEREAS IF THE
CONVERGENCE BAND SETS UP AROUND POCATELLO LIKE THE HRRR SHOWS, THOSE
HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE FARTHER EAST. THE HRRR SOLUTION WOULD BRING 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE BLACKFOOT, POCATELLO, AMERICAN FALLS AREA
WITH TOTALS CLOSER TO 5 OR 6 INCHES UP ON THE BENCHES. NO MATTER
WHICH SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION, ANYONE PLANNING TO BE OUT AND
ABOUT TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD PLAN TO
ENCOUNTER WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN
THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH HILLS WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH.
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREAS, SNOW TOTALS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW, AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, BUT BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH ABOUT AN INCH OR SO FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES AROUND PASS LEVEL.
ONCE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF IN THE AFTERNOON, IT WILL STILL BE A
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND BREEZY WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. AMM
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON SUN IS SHORT-LIVED AS BY SUN AFTERNOON THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE FLATTENING THE RIDGE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
ALREADY BE ACCUMULATING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHERE AGREEMENT AMOUNT MODEL MEMBERS COLLAPSES,
AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF VARIATIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW.
MOST HAVE IT DIGGING MORE SOUTHWARD THAN EASTWARD, WHICH WILL
DELAY ANY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE IN
EASTERN IDAHO. TEMPERATURES, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS, BOTTOM OUT ON
TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE LEVEL IN SHOWERS BEHIND THIS
LOW. BY WED, A STRONG HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES OR PACIFIC NW. IF THE AXIS STAYS WEST OF IDAHO,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND BELOW NORMAL. IF THE AXIS SHIFTS
TO EAST OF IDAHO, THERE SHOULD BE STRONG WARMING WITH A SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AIR FLOW. RIGHT NOW, THE MAJORITY OPINION IS IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL THU TO GET THE AXIS EITHER OVER IDAHO OR TO THE EAST,
SO IT MAY NOT BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE VERY END
OF THIS PERIOD. MESSICK
AVIATION
12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY.
A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH UT AND WY WILL BRING WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, STARTING AFTER 16/00Z. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RA, BUT DURING THE
EVENING, SHORTLY BEFORE AIRPORT CLOSURE AT NIGHT, SWITCH OVER TO
SN. THE NORTHWESTERLY AIR FLOW WILL FAVOR A DOWNSLOPE CONDITION AT
KSUN WHICH MAY HELP KEEP THIS AIRDROME OPEN ON SAT MORNING. IFR
WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT KDIJ, WHICH MAY BE THREATENED WITH AIRPORT
CLOSURE DUE TO VSBY IN SN. THE VALLEY AIRDROMES WILL LIKELY FLIRT
WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL VFR BY THIS EVENING, THEN TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS, MAINLY DUE TO VSBY IN SN AND BR. THIS FRONT IF IT
BRINGS ANY WIND WILL BE LIMITED TO KIDA WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS COMING OFF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE NORTH AT THE
ID- MT BORDER. MESSICK
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR IDZ054-058-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR IDZ055>057-067.
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