518
FXUS65 KPIH 161016
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
316 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND SUNDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO EARLY
THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
TRACKING OVER EXTREME EASTERN IDAHO INTO MONTANA WITH RADAR
SHOWING ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL WRAP UP BY LATE MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING FAIRLY MODEST. ANOTHER TRACE TO
INCH OR SO IS FORECAST BELOW 5,500 FEET ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR
WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES ABOVE 5,500 FEET SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS. AREA
WEBCAMS AND GRIP LEVELS SUGGEST ROAD CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DEGRADED
MUCH ACROSS OUR VALLEYS, WITH SNOW GENERALLY ONLY ACCUMULATING ON
GRASSY SURFACES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY, WHICH COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERING RADAR TRENDS AND ADDITIONAL FORECAST
ACCUMULATIONS, WE HAVE OPTED TO END THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EARLY FOR THE BEAVERHEAD-LEMHI HIGHLANDS, EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY,
AND LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8
AM MST FOR THE SOUTHERN HILLS/ALBION MOUNTAINS, RAFT RIVER REGION,
MARSH AND ALBION HIGHLANDS, AND BEAR RIVER RANGE.
MOST OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE THE IMPACTS OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE ISLAND PARK REGION AND HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
NATIONAL BLEND PROBABILITIES OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS 20% TO 30% FOR THE
ASHTON/ISLAND PARK REGION, 20% TO 40% FOR KETCHUM, AND LESS THAN
10% IN HAILEY. CROPP
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW EVEN DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. FOR NOW, SNOW TOTALS LOOK NEAR OR SUB-ADVISORY IN THE
VALLEYS BUT POTENTIALLY HEADLINE WORTHY FOR PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHLANDS. TUESDAY LOOK COLD WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS. THE PATTERN QUICKLY FLIPS BY WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ENTERS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST
CHANCES FOR MOISTURE FROM THIS EVENT ARE ON WESTWARD FACING
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
POTENTIALLY, WE COULD SEE HEADLINE WORTHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THESE AREAS. 13
AVIATION
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE ONGOING WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
300 FT OR LOWER CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING AT KPIH AND
KIDA. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO VFR AT KSUN AND
KBYI WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS TRENDING THIS WAY HEADING INTO LATER
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TODAY, ESPECIALLY AT KBYI WHERE
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12 TO 15 KTS AT KPIH AND
KIDA. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVER ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KDIJ, BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFT INTO
EASTERN IDAHO LATE TONIGHT. CROPP
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
IDZ056>058-060.
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