985
FXUS65 KPIH 162009
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
109 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AFTER A CLOUDY AND SNOWY OVERNIGHT AND START TO THE DAY, THINGS
ARE BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. FOR NOW.
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LINGERING LOW STRATUS IN
PARTS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN INTO THE ARCO DESERT TOWARDS CRATERS AND
OCCASIONALLY TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER WOOD RIVER VALLEY.
RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW SOME REALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL
STILL FALLING IN THESE AREAS, AS WELL AS INTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN COLD, WITH
POCATELLO STILL BELOW FREEZING BUT AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A BIT
MORE SUN HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING BUT NOT BY MUCH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED REGIONWIDE.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA, SOME LOCATIONS MUCH MORE THAN OTHERS. NAMELY AROUND THE
SAWTOOTHS, SUN VALLEY AND ISLAND PARK REGIONS WHERE WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY ON THE NEXT FORECAST. MORE SPECIFIC
AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND BELOW. MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WE SHOULD THE BULK OF THE SNOW
WITH OUR NEXT STORM ENDING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO KNOCK DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT...AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WE WILL ALSO SEE ENOUGH WIND FOR POCKETS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENT. AMOUNTS HAVEN'T CHANGED
MUCH SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE OVERNIGHT. MOST VALLEY AREAS
ARE LOOKING AT ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO NEAR 0.33". MOST
MOUNTAINS RANGES ARE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE. IN THE FAVORED
SAWTOOTHS, WE ARE LOOKING AT 0.60-1.20"...AND FOR THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS 0.50-1.10". THAT EQUATES ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE-4" FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 3-7" FOR MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES. FOR THE
SAWTOOTHS AND SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS, 6-12" WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE SAWTOOTHS. FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS,
7-14" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME DISAGREEMENT. OVERNIGHT, IT LOOKED
LIKE WE WOULD SEE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS GET
SLAMMED WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWITCHED BACK TO A STRONGER RIDGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW ARRIVING SATURDAY. THE CLUSTER
FORECASTS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE. AROUND 25-30% OF THE
CLUSTERS SHOW WHAT THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING, AROUND
40% HAVE THE WEAKER RIDGE IN PLACE, 15% HAVE A REALLY STRONG RIDGE
IN PLACE, AND THE REST SHOVE THE RIDGE OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND THE
OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 SHIFTED THAT DIRECTION. OUR
BLEND OF MODELS SEEMS TO STILL KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF DAY AFTER
DAY OF MOISTURE FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS...AND NOTHING REALLY ANYWHERE ELSE UNTIL SATURDAY. IT
ALSO KEEPS THE IDEA OF A MUCH WARMER PATTERN THAN WHAT WE WERE
SEEING A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. KEYES
AVIATION
SEEING OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS AROUND KSUN AND KBYI BUT STILL
HAVING LINGERING STRATUS ISSUES AROUND KPIH, KIDA AND KDIJ. THIS
HAS LED TO PROLONGED MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THESE LOCATIONS. SNOWFALL
HAS GREATLY TAPERED OFF AND SHOULD REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. AS FAR AS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IS CONCERNED, WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR OVERNIGHT STRATUS WITH NEW FOUND SNOWPACK IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS STILL LOWER THAN
DESIRED. FOR NOW, FORECAST HAS VFR CONDITIONS BUT THIS COULD BE A
BIT OPTIMISTIC. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING CLOSER TO 10 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. MCKAUGHAN
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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