693
FXUS65 KPIH 171034
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
334 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND MONDAY.
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS ELEVATED WINDS WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS
SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING, WITH THE MAIN TIMEFRAME OF
IMPACTS OCCURRING BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, PEAKING DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. THIS WILL EXACERBATE IMPACTS, MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT DURING
BOTH MORNING AND AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTES.
WHILE REGIONS LIKE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND POTENTIALLY PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO STRICTLY
SNOW AREAWIDE BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS/ISLAND PARK REGION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR 6 INCHES TO A FOOT
OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, WHERE 2 TO
5 INCHES ARE FORECAST, AND FOR 4 TO 10 INCHES IN THE BEAVERHEAD-
LEMHI HIGHLANDS AND BIG HOLE MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SAWTOOTH/STANLEY
BASIN, SUN VALLEY REGION, BIG LOST HIGHLANDS, AND WOOD RIVER
FOOTHILLS WHERE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST WITH UP TO ONE
FOOT ABOVE 8,000 FEET ELEVATION AND UP TO TWO FEET ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE SAWTOOTHS. ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO BELOW 5,500
FEET AND 2 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 5,500 FEET. THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN STANLEY AND KETCHUM. AMOUNTS
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ALONG US-20 NEAR REXBURG AND FURTHER
NORTH, WITH 7 INCHES FORECAST IN ASHTON AND UP TO ONE FOOT ON ASHTON
HILL. THE TETON VALLEY ON THE OTHER HAND WILL SEE FAR LESS
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SHADOWING FROM THE BIG HOLES. AS FOR OUR
MOUNTAIN PASSES, AROUND 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR MANY OF THEM, LIKE
GALENA SUMMIT, PINE CREEK, TARGHEE, RAYNOLDS, AND EMIGRATION PASSES.
CROPP
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE, A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ONTO THE COAST AND
INLAND. MOISTURE FROM THIS EVENT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD THIS MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ISLAND PARK REGION FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
RIDGE MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER. THIS WOULD STILL BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SAWTOOTHS BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH INTO THE ISLAND
PARK REGION. SOME OSCILLATION IN THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE THE MODELS GET DIALED IN.
AROUND SUNDAY, MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH MOVING PASSING
THROUGH EAST IDAHO WHICH WOULD BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA. 13
AVIATION
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARING THE PACIFIC
COAST, WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY WORKING INTO CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT KSUN BEGINNING AT 21Z, GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE HOURS,
AND AT KPIH, KIDA, AND KDIJ BEGINNING SOME TIME BETWEEN 05Z AND
07Z TONIGHT. KBYI WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOLELY SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH IS WHEN THE ONSET OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED. THE STRONGEST FORECAST WINDS ARE AT KPIH AND
KBYI, WHERE 20 TO 35 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT. CROPP
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST
MONDAY FOR IDZ053-064-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
FOR IDZ066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR IDZ072>075.
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