983
FXUS65 KPIH 172025
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
125 PM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO, NAMELY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ALL OF THE AREA HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE SNOW BUT THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CERTAINLY SEE THE
BRUNT OF THE ACCUMULATION. A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES AROUND
THE ISLAND PARK REGION WHERE 6-12 INCHES APPEARS SEEMS LIKELY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE STANLEY BASIN,
SUN VALLEY REGION, LEMHI HIGHLANDS, THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND INTO
THE BIG HOLE MOUNTAINS. IN MANY OF THESE AREAS, A SOLID 4-10
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED (HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS)
WHILE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE 3-6 INCH RANGE ARE MORE PROBABLE IN
THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN INCLUDING IDAHO FALLS, REXBURG AND ST.
ANTHONY.
ELSEWHERE, STILL EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE ONSET OF PRECIP LIKELY TO BEGIN IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN A FEW HOURS BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REST
OF THE AREA A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUPPORT
A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND PERHAPS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIP BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LIGHT DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NON- ADVISORY AREAS BELOW 5500 FT WHICH INCLUDES AREAS
AROUND POCATELLO, AMERICAN FALLS AND INTO BURLEY. 2-4 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR AREAS ABOVE 5500 FT WHICH INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH SOME MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE LIKELY IN
THE BEAR RIVER RANGE AND NEARBY MOUNTAIN PASSES. IN ADDITION TO
THE SNOW, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AT TIMES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS AS WELL.
BY MIDDAY MONDAY, SNOW WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE OUTSIDE
OF HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, EAST/SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A QUICK BURST OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A WEAK "WAVE" BUSTS
ACROSS IDAHO AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW SETTING UP TO OUR WEST. WE
SHOULD ONLY SEE ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE BIG HOLES INTO THE TETONS
AND AROUND BANNER SUMMIT. OTHERWISE, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
LIKELY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE CONSENSUS IS STARTING TO
FOCUS A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT SETTING UP FOR THE
SAWTOOTHS/SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE
GFS, ECMWF, AND MAJORITY OF CLUSTERS DO INDICATE THIS SET UP.
(ABOUT 10-20% OF THE CLUSTERS ACTUALLY SHIFT THE ENTIRE PATTERN
WEST BY A FEW HUNDRED MILES AND STILL KEEP THE RIDGE WEST OF US VS
JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE.) THERE COULD BE SOME OCCASIONAL
SPILLOVER INTO OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO, BUT THE
FOCUS SHOULD BE IN THESE AREAS. EVEN WITH THIS SETUP, THE CURRENT
FOCUS MAY DUMP A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE SAWTOOTHS AND A FRACTION
OF THAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND TETONS. THERE IS A 20-40%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.50" ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS DURING
THIS 72 HOUR PERIOD, WHILE THERE IS A 15- 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
TWO INCHES IN THE SAWTOOTHS AND SURROUNDING RANGES. WE DO EXPECT
CHANGES OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT THAT GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WITH US BEING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW, THAT MEANS THE
IDEA OF SUPER COLD TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK ARE JUST A
DISTANT MEMORY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 40S
AND 50S. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY SNOW IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND AROUND ISLAND PARK BUT ONLY REALLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP. IT LOOKS WET HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE, KEEPING
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE. KEYES
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE MOMENT ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT ALL EAST IDAHO TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KSUN WILL BEGIN SEEING SNOW IMPACTS SHORTLY AND A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AM.
ELSEWHERE, LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR A MIX COULD IMPACT KBYI AND KPIH BUT
THEREAFTER SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING SNOW AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
ESPECIALLY AT KBYI, KIDA AND KPIH WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. MCKAUGHAN
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST
MONDAY FOR IDZ053-064-067.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
FOR IDZ066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR IDZ072>075.
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