490
FXUS65 KPIH 190327
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
827 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
UPDATE
WE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM
WARNING EXPIRED AS PLANNED AT 8PM. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A DECENT BURST OF SNOW, AND ADD TO ALREADY SLICK
ROADS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO. WE MAY ALSO
SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. KEYES
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 143 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS STILL IN PLACE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW/WIND TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL HAS CEASED
ACROSS THE REGION BUT SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO THE
EAST OF I-15 AND ALONG US-20 UP TOWARDS ISLAND PARK. ACROSS THIS
AREA, THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUE UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR AN ADDITION 1-2 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POOR DRIVING
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE, WE'VE SEEN A FEW OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WHILE WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY, ESPECIALLY THE SNAKE PLAIN, MAGIC VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE INL TOWARDS CRATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME
OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH WE'LL STILL SEE
SOME LINGERING SNOW, NAMELY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH A
FEW TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS WITH MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES IN THE BIG HOLES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS
SEEING DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. THE LOWER SNAKE AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY MAY BE LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODEL CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
CLUSTERS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL
MTNS/WESTERN SAWTOOTHS AND WESTERN SLOPES ALONG THE MONTANA DIVIDE
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL MOUNTAIN,
MAINLY BELOW 7000 FEET, WITH 5 TO INCHES TO UP TO AROUND 2 TO 3
FEET OF SNOW FOR EXTREME WESTERN LOCATIONS AND HIGHER PEAKS LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS ONLY A 30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR STANLEY AND A 20 TO 40 PERCENT OF 2
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE KETCHUM/HAILEY AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 6 INCHES OR
GREATER ABOVE 7000 FEET, MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/WESTERN SAWTOOTHS AND FOR WESTERN SLOPES ALONG THE
MONTANA DIVIDE AND THE TETONS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
MODEL CLUSTERS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT CLUSTERS VARY IN INTENSITY AND
TIMING. SOME MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SOME MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. REGARDLESS LOOK FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. WYATT
AVIATION...
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
KSUN, KBYI AND KPIH ARE DONE SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FROM
SNOWFALL ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER HERE AND THERE ARE STILL POSSIBLE
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. CIGS AT THE LATTER WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN
MVFR/VFR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE POTENTIALLY IMPROVING SOME
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. KIDA STILL HAS SOME SNOW IN THE VICINITY
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS OVER THERE AS WELL ALTHOUGH
EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN PROBLEMATIC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, IF NOT
LONGER. MORE ON THAT SHORTLY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KDIJ
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS LEADING TO PREDOMINATE IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW BECOMES MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
STRATUS AND/OR FOG OVERNIGHT AT KIDA, KDIJ AND TO SOME EXTENT
KPIH. CURRENT FORECAST DOES SHOW MVFR CIGS AND BR AT KIDA AND KDIJ
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF IT
TRANSPIRES AT KPIH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY 15-25 KTS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KSUN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOSER
TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MCKAUGHAN
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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