753
FXUS65 KPIH 190920
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
220 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TODAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS, WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REMAINING 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. BREEZY WINDS
WILL ONLY EXAGGERATE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 25 MPH PREDOMINATELY ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. A TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EASTWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES AS
COMPARED TO TODAY AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
CENTRAL IDAHO WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE IMPACTS OF THE POTENT LOW AS IT
NEARS THE PNW COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAWTOOTHS/STANLEY BASIN, BIG LOST HIGHLANDS, AND SUN VALLEY REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DURING WHICH TIME ONE TO TWO FEET OF
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7,500 TO 8,000 FEET ELEVATION. WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH COULD CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
CONCERNS, AS WELL. TOTAL FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR WEDNESDAY
ALONE IS 3 TO 10 INCHES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. SEE MORE
DETAILS ON THE EXTENDED PERIOD BELOW. CROPP
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM. MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE
ON THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWS
TO THE THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE STANLEY AND KETCHUM. ELEVATIONS ABOVE
7000 FEET, INCLUDING GALENA PASS, WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 FEET OF
SNOW FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THE VALLEYS, INCLUDING
STANLEY AND KETCHUM, WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 7 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE ACTIVITY COULD DIMINISH SOME ON
FRIDAY AS THE MAIN PLUME SLIDES JUST A TAD NORTH. THE 24 HOUR SNOW
TOTALS FROM 12Z FRIDAY ARE IN THE 2 TO 8 INCHES RANGE ABOVE 7000
FEET, DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE PLUME ACTUALLY SLIDES NORTH
OR NOT. WILL LIKELY END THE WINTER STORM WARNING 12Z FRIDAY, BUT
MAY NEED TO EXTEND IT THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST IDAHO ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THROUGH THE REGION. THE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE KETCHUM AND STANLEY WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL
3 TO 9 INCHES FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. SO THE STORM
TOTAL FOR THIS EVENT IS ROUGHLY 2 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW ABOVE 7000
FEET.
DURING MOST OF THIS EVENT, THE REST OF CENTRAL AND EAST IDAHO IS
LARGELY PROTECTED BY A RIDGE. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT THE EMPHASIS IS ON LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM ACROSS EAST IDAHO AS WELL WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY, SNOW LEVELS ARE ABOVE 6000 FEET AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH EAST IDAHO. SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOUND MAINLY NEAR RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY,
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED POCKETS OF SNOW PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY
LIGHT. 13
AVIATION
TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF KDIJ
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF KPIH AND KDIJ BEING THE
OTHER MAIN IMPACTS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT KPIH AND
KIDA BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT INTO
EASTERN IDAHO BEGINNING TONIGHT WITH BKN TO OVC MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALSO WHEN KSUN
WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPCOMING
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. CROPP
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
IDZ072>074.
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