231
FXUS65 KPIH 192030
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
130 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE
FROM THAT, THINGS ARE QUIET ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO GET QUITE COLD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AREAS WITH NEW-FOUND
SNOWPACK WITH LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, ARCO DESERT, UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND INTO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE, UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK HOWEVER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THOUGH AS
WE GET INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. ESPECIALLY INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A POWERFUL UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND IS
PUMPING AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NW, THE MAJORITY OF WHICH
WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON
TOMORROW. SOME WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA TOMORROW THOUGH, NAMELY
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, BRINGING A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION
BUT EVEN MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE
HI-RES MODELS AREN'T OVERLY BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO SO POPS ARE
RUNNING IN THE 10-30 PERCENT RANGE. MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
MODEL CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE. THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN CENTRAL MTNS/WESTERN
SAWTOOTHS AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE WESTERN SLOPES ALONG THE
MONTANA DIVIDE/WYOMING BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, MAINLY BELOW 7000 FEET, WITH 5 TO
INCHES TO UP TO AROUND 2 FEET (IF NOT HIGHER) OF SNOW FOR EXTREME
WESTERN LOCATIONS AND HIGHER PEAKS FOR THE WESTERN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THERE IS A 85 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR STANLEY AND A 55 TO 75 PERCENT OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
KETCHUM/HAILEY AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A
60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF 8 INCHES OR GREATER ABOVE 7000 FEET,
MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WESTERN SAWTOOTHS.
DURING MOST OF THIS EVENT, THE REST OF CENTRAL AND EAST IDAHO IS
LARGELY PROTECTED BY A RIDGE. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT THE EMPHASIS IS ON LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ACROSS EAST IDAHO AS WELL WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY. ON SATURDAY, SNOW LEVELS ARE ABOVE 6000 TO
7000 FEET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EAST IDAHO. SNOW AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOUND MAINLY NEAR
RIDGES. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR
VALLEY RAIN BELOW AROUND 6000 FEET BEFORE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY. LIGHT VALLEY SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING AND AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK COOLER FOR SUNDAY (3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
MODELS VARY STARTING ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS MODEL SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY FOLLOWED BY BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY. WYATT
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. DID SEE SOME LINGERING
STRATUS AROUND KPIH AND KIDA EARLIER BUT THINGS HAVE IMPROVED FOR
NOW. WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL BUT
ARE RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR KIDA AND KDIJ FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT STRATUS BUT MODELS AREN'T NEARLY AS BULLISH ON THAT
TONIGHT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO HAVE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE
FORECAST. KSUN WILL SEE GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY
DAYBREAK WITH SNOW POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MCKAUGHAN
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
IDZ072>074.
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